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Jefferies lifts 2025 iPhone forecast on pull-in demand

Jefferies has cut its 2025-2027 smartphone volume estimates by 2%-4%, the third cut since 3Q24, due to tariff-driven pull-in demand making the second half of 2025 more challenging amid weak innovation, economic uncertainty, high Android inventories, and fading China subsidies. However, the firm raised the 2025 iPhone forecast by 4% thanks to pull-in demand and 618 discounts, and introduced a 2028 estimate of 1.317M units, implying 4% year over year growth. Jefferies believes the strong iPhone growth has likely been driven by pull-in demand in the U.S. and elsewhere due to tariff concerns.

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