Here’s what Wall Street is saying about Nike ahead of Q4 earnings

Nike (NKE) is expected to report results on its fiscal fourth quarter on Thursday, June 26, with a conference call scheduled for 5:00 pm EDT. What to watch for:

GUIDANCE: In March, Nike forecast fourth quarter revenue down in the low- to mid-teens, with gross margin down 400-500 basis points. The company commented that the macroeconomic environment is “challenging,” but President and CEO Elliott Hill said “The progress we made against the ‘Win Now’ strategic priorities we committed to 90 days ago reinforces my confidence that we are on the right path.”

Given the ongoing pressure from Nike’s “Win Now” turnaround efforts and the macro volatility, Truist expects the management to provide a fairly-pessimistic Q1 outlook and to continue to hold off on providing FY26 projections, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays says it remains cautious on Nike heading into fiscal Q4 earnings report. It expects ongoing “franchise life cycle management,” a return to wholesale, tariffs, and China risk will weigh on the company’s fiscal 2026 performance.

TROUGH FOR REVENUE DECLINES: Evercore ISI says that while Q4 was likely the trough for Nike’s revenue and gross margin declines, it sees little incentive for management to offer any optimistic commitments with its initial fiscal 2026 commentary given “multiple new unknowns” since the company last commented on fiscal 2026, including tariffs and China brand issues. Evercore cut its fiscal 2026 earnings per share estimate to $1.50, below the Street’s $1.88, citing the near-term risks that Nike will likely embed in its commentary. Whether Nike pushes consensus as low as $1.50 per share “is less important on the eve of finding out the consumer’s response to tariff-driven price increases across the wardrobe,” contends the firm. It thinks the near-term stock driver will be whether Nike reiterates comments from the Q3 call that Q4 was the trough for revenue.

CONSENSUS ‘TOO HIGH’: Morgan Stanley sees room for Q4 EPS upside, but cautions it also believes the Street FY26 EPS consensus is “too high.” Estimates that are too high plus a lack of positive demand and innovation feedback from the channel leaves the firm “slightly more negative on our Equal-weight rating,” though “seemingly bearish sentiment may mean any bright spots are rewarded,” the analyst tells investors in a preview.

PRICE INCREASES, LAYOFFS, PRODUCT DELAYS: Nike will raise its prices on adult footwear, apparel, and equipment, CNBC’s Gabrielle Fonrouge reported in May, citing a person familiar with the matter. The prices of children’s products will not increase, nor will items priced under $100, according to the person. Footwear priced between $100 and $150 will see a hike of $5, while sneakers priced above $150 will see a $10 increase, the report indicates.

Meanwhile, Nike is laying off some staff as it seeks to reduce its technology division, Bloomberg’s Kim Bhasin and Lily Meier reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Some of that work is being shifted to 3rd party vendors, the report states. Separately, Bhasin and Meier reported that after initial plans to launch its first collection this spring, the launch of Nike’s brand with Kim Kardashian’s Skims label has been pushed back. According to people familiar with the matter, NikeSkims is dealing with production delays as it prepares to debut the brand this year, but the brand still plans to release products “sometime this year.”

Also, Amazon (AMZN) plans to start selling Nike products for the first time since 2019, with supplies coming directly from the company, according to The Information’s Theo Wayt and Sara Germano, citing an Amazon spokesperson. After Deckers Outdoor’s (DECK) fiscal Q4 results showed that HOKA brand sales missed consensus expectations and growth slowed “again,” Jefferies believes market share shifts will begin to favor Nike with the latter stepping up innovation and reintroducing wholesale channels such as Amazon.

SENTIMENT: Click here to check out Nike’s recent Media Buzz Sentiment as measured by TipRanks.