Comcast (CMCSA) and Paramount (PARA) are scheduled to announce quarterly results on July 31th, while Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) is expected to report earnings on August 7th. What to watch for:
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POSITIVE Q2 SETUP: KeyBanc raised the firm’s price target on Warner Bros. Discovery to $18 from $13, while keeping an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm sees the Q2 setup as positive, as it expects Warner Bros. Discovery to beat on total revenue/adjusted EBITDA with Studios and direct-to-consumer upside. KeyBanc further expects to hear DTC EBITDA guidance raised to over $1.4B and expects Studios EBITDA to improve close to $2.5B in 2025. Looking forward, the firm thinks the recent tender offer should improve net leverage by about $3B, and result in consolidated leverage of 3.5-turns by year-end 2025. Lastly, KeyBanc believes the S&S spin from Global Networks should unlock value for shareholders, where it values S&S at about 11-times pro forma EBITDA and Global Networks at 6-times EBITDA. While its conviction level is lower given the stock performance, the firm thinks the downside is protected through improving fundamentals and the upside is potentially uncapped, as the market looks to value the world’s largest Film/TV Studio and HBO Max, a top 5 streaming service.
BofA also raised the firm’s price target on Buy-rated Warner Bros. Discovery to $16 from $14. Warner Bros. Discovery’s Q2 earnings should reflect a strong quarter at the box office, offset by industry headwinds in linear, with the Studios segment showing major year-over-year EBITDA growth driven by a strong quarter at the box office, continued momentum in TV and easier comps, the firm tells investors in a research note. The linear business remains challenged with strength in sports advertising but weakness across the board in general entertainment, BofA notes.
SEPARATION: Last month, Warner Bros. Discovery announced plans to separate the company, in a tax-free transaction, into two publicly traded companies. More recently, Warner Bros. Discovery announced the corporate names for when the company separates in mid-2026. “Streaming & Studios,” which will be home to Warner Bros. Television, Warner Bros. Motion Picture Group, DC Studios, HBO, HBO Max and Warner Bros. Gaming Studios, as well as their film and television libraries, will be called Warner Bros. Meanwhile, “Global Networks,” which will include entertainment, sports and news television brands around the world including CNN, TNT Sports in the U.S., Discovery, and top free-to-air channels across Europe as well as digital products such as the Discovery+ streaming service and Bleacher Report will be called Discovery Global.
The Warner Bros. Motion Picture Group is enacting a round of layoffs that will see jobs cut across its marketing, production strategy, operations and theater ventures divisions, Variety’s Brent Lang reported on Wednesday. Roughly 10% of the studio’s workforce will be impacted, sources say. The move comes as Warner Bros. Discovery, the studio’s parent company, is preparing to split itself in two. The new publicly traded companies will be Warner Bros., which will include the film division as well as the TV studios and streaming operations, and Discovery Global, which will be comprised of TV networks, Discovery+ and other assets, the authors note.
PARAMOUNT, SKYDANCE DEAL: The U.S. Federal Communications Commission has approved the merger between Skydance Media and Paramount Global. Commissioner Olivia Trusty said, “I support today’s approval of the Paramount Global and Skydance Media merger. This transaction reflects the free market at work, where private investment, not government intervention, is preserving an iconic American media institution. During its review of the transaction, the Commission determined the merger was lawful and would serve the public interest. This deal brings fresh leadership, new capital, and a clear plan to compete with dominant tech platforms. Skydance’s commitment to creative excellence and operational discipline offers New Paramount a real path forward in today’s challenging media environment. This is a win for American jobs, American storytelling, and the principle that markets, not Washington, should decide the future of our industries. I want to thank Chairman Carr for his leadership in bringing the merger to a full Commission vote. His commitment to transparency and process has ensured that this matter received the thorough consideration it deserves.”
Paramount Global announced that the transactions contemplated by the Transaction Agreement, dated as of July 7, 2024, by and among Paramount, Skydance, New Pluto Global and the other parties thereto are expected to close on August 7, 2025, subject to customary closing conditions.
Seaport Research downgraded Paramount to Sell from Neutral with an $11 price target on B shares, which the firm notes will trade under the ticker symbol “PSKY” after August 7 following the closing of the Skydance merger. Ahead of the merger closing, the firm is reducing its “too-robust” advertising and filmed entertainment estimates for Q3 and beyond, noting that it still sees upside in the short-term, but sees risk that shares could give back some of the deal-related upside post-tender. The firm also sees questions surrounding the go-forward strategy post-close and tender, adds Seaport, which has a $17 price target on Paramount A shares, whose holders will receive cash or 1.533 PSKY shares upon deal closing.
TARGET RAISE: Earlier this month, Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne raised the firm’s price target on Comcast to $40 from $37 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm raised free cash flow estimates for U.S. operators following the newly signed tax law, and Morgan Stanley tells investors in a research note that capacity will likely be allocated to a mix of buybacks, fiber builds, and/or other M&A. Competition is intense, but unclear if it is intensifying, the firm adds.
SENTIMENT: Click here to check out Comcast recent Media Buzz Sentiment as measured by TipRanks.
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