JPMorgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC), and Citi (C) are scheduled to announce quarterly results on July 15. What to watch for:
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TARGETS RAISED: JPMorgan raised the firm’s price target on Wells Fargo to $83 from $73.50, while keeping a Neutral rating on the shares as part of a Q2 preview for the large cap banks. The firm attributes the recent outperformance of the large bank stocks to the hope for a continued good economy and regulatory benefits with some reduction in capital requirements. In the near term, JPMorgan expects large bank stocks to remain in a narrow range due to “moderate fundamentals” and above average valuations. The firm also raised its price target on Citi to $87.50 from $75, keeping a Neutral rating on the shares as part of a Q2 preview for the large cap banks.
VALUATION AFTER RALLY: Earlier this month, Raymond James double downgraded Wells Fargo to Market Perform from Strong Buy without a price target. The firm says the shares are up 15% since it increased earnings estimates following the removal of the asset cap. Raymond James remains bullish on Wells’ growth prospects and continued profitability improvement, but believes upside to earnings estimates is now appropriately reflected in the stock’s premium valuation, which will limit near-term upside.
Meanwhile, HSBC downgraded JPMorgan to Reduce from Hold with a price target of $259, up from $237. The firm is more cautious on universal banks and brokers following the recent rally in the shares. HSBC recommends a more constructive stance on super-regionals. While operating fundamentals in the banks and broker group appear healthy, share valuations are “increasingly stretched,” the firm tells investors in a research note. For JPMorgan, HSBC is not taking a more negative view of the company’s operating fundamentals. Rather, it sees an unattractive risk-to-reward profile at current share levels.
On the flip side, HSBC raised the firm’s price target on Citi to $97 from $86 and kept a Buy rating on the shares.
BUSINESS MODEL SUPERIORITY: Last week, Keefe Bruyette analyst Christopher McGratty upgraded JPMorgan to Outperform from Market Perform with a price target of $327, up from $253, following a transfer of coverage. The firm is bullish on the long-term structural benefits of scale for the large-cap banks. It prefers business models that can produce leading returns with high degrees of predictability. Keefe cites “business model superiority” for the upgrade.
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