After President Trump announced a 90 day pause on the additional country-specific portion of the “reciprocal” tariff and is leaving in place all prior tariffs and the 10% minimum portion of the reciprocal tariff, Goldman Sachs’ Jan Hatzius notes that the firm continues to expect additional sector-specific tariffs that are “likely to sum to something close to our previous expectation” of a 15 percentage point increase in the effective tariff rate. The firm is now reverting to its previous non-recession baseline forecast with GDP growth of 0.5% and a 45% probability of recession, Goldman noted.
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