Geo Group price target lowered to $36 from $46 at Wedbush

Wedbush lowered the firm’s price target on Geo Group (GEO) to $36 from $46 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The firm explains that when it raised its price target in January 2025, Wedbush put its Geo valuation at the highest level it had traded in the pre-COVID years. The firm’s decision to move to that valuation was based on its “erroneous view” that ATD/ISAP monitoring would ramp back to the previous highs fairly quickly after Trump’s inauguration. Since that has not happened and since the Trump Administration appears more intent on incarceration than monitoring for now, Wedbush is lowering its valuation to a 12.5-turns FY26 EV/AEBITDA multiple.