Crypto Currents: Wall Street analysts provide market outlook for 2026

As the market prepares to usher in the new year, fintech leaders like Coinbase and PayPal are seeking national charters to secure direct access to U.S. payment rails, while credit card giants prepare for a future dominated by stablecoins and AI agents. Meanwhile, Grayscale forecasts that regulatory clarity will be the primary market driver in 2026. Stay up on the crypto news that matters with “Crypto Currents,” daily from The Fly. Join us at 2 PM ET for your essential briefing on the fast-moving world of cryptocurrency on FlyCast radio. Also, subscribe to our YouTube channel for the Crypto Fly By weekly recap.

FINTECHS PURSUE NATIONAL BANKING CHARTERS: The race to integrate digital assets into the U.S. financial system is accelerating. According to Bloomberg, fintech companies are trading state licenses for national charters to gain direct access to Federal Reserve payment rails. The report highlights that Coinbase (COIN) and PayPal (PYPL) have pending national trust bank applications, alongside similar moves by Interactive Brokers (IBKR) and Nu Holdings (NU). Additionally, Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) are preparing for a surge in stablecoin settlements and “agent-native commerce,” betting that AI-driven transactions will dominate the 2026 landscape.

BINANCE SUSPENDS CARD WITHDRAWALS IN UKRAINE: While U.S. adoption grows, friction persists internationally. Cointelegraph reports that Binance has suspended withdrawals to cards issued by Visa and Mastercard for users in Ukraine due to regulatory changes impacting its fiat payment provider. Despite the halt on direct card transfers, the exchange noted that account top-ups via Apple (AAPL) Pay and Google (GOOGL) Pay remain operational.

FORTUNE 100 FIRMS AND BANKS BUILD PRIVATE CHAINS: Major corporations are quietly building their own infrastructure. In a post made to X, managing partner of Dragonfly Capital, Haseeb Qureshi, predicts that a Big Tech firm, potentially Meta Platforms (META), Google, or Apple, will launch a crypto wallet in 2026. The post also notes that the Avalanche blockchain, which houses the native avalanche token (AVAX-USD), will likely be leveraged in the creation of new blockchains from traditional finance players, such as giants JPMorgan (JPM), Bank of America (BAC), and Goldman Sachs (GS), who have already constructed private blockchains. Outside of the banking sector, IBM (IBM) has also constructed their own blockchain. The analysis suggests these established players may outpace new networks from fintech firj like Robinhood (HOOD), yet still lag behind the ‘gold-standard’ Layer-1 blockchains such as Bitcoin and Ethereum.

ANALYSTS MAKE MARKET PREDICTIONS FOR 2026: Looking ahead, market structure is taking center stage. According to analysts at Grayscale (GRAY), they believe a bipartisan U.S. crypto market structure bill is poised to become law in 2026, overshadowing concerns about quantum computing. The firm expects new legislation to establish a “traditional financial-market rulebook” covering registration and disclosure, which would encourage regulated financial firms to hold digital assets on their balance sheets. Wall Street research is turning bullish on the coming year. Analysts at Citi (C) have set a 12-month base case prediction for bitcoin (BTC-USD) at $143,000, citing revived demand for spot ETFs. The bank’s bull case target reaches as high as $189,000, aligning with technical patterns that suggest the traditional four-year market cycle may be breaking in favor of sustained institutional adoption.

BLACKROCK FUND PASSES $2B IN ASSETS: Institutional appetite for on-chain yield is proving resilient. CoinDesk reports that the tokenized money market fund BUIDL, managed by BlackRock (BLK), has surpassed $2B in assets. The fund, which invests in U.S. Treasuries, has distributed approximately $100M in dividends and is increasingly utilized as collateral in trading arrangements involving assets like ether (ETH-USD).

PRICE ACTION: As of time of writing, bitcoin was trading at $88,905.57, while ether was trading at $2,984.72, according to price data from CoinDesk.