Containerboard closures happening more quickly than expected, says BofA

BofA analyst Patrick Mann noted that the Georgia-Pacific (GP) announcement that it would close its Cedar Springs mill by August 1 follows International Paper’s (IP) closure of its Red River mill in Q1 and Smurfit WestRock’s (SW) closure of its Forney mill earlier this month. Prior to International Paper’s announcement, the firm had expected 1.5M-2M tons or more of capacity to close in the next few years, and the closures to date have met or exceeded BofA’s expectations, and occurred more quickly than expected. That said, the closures also reflect that containerboard demand has been sluggish in 2025, with consumption down 1% and box shipments down 2%, the analyst tells investors in a research note. In the space, the firm said that it has a Buy rating on Greif (GEF), Packaging Corp (PKG), and Smurfit, while International Paper is rated Neutral at BofA.