Citi sees tiered orforglipron pricing $15B opportunity for Eli Lilly

Citi says that given “compelling” data, Eli Lilly (LLY) and Novo Nordisk (NVO) have reframed obesity as a treatable disease, not just a lifestyle-based condition. Citi models over $40B in 2030 obesity sales, above the consensus of $25B, “using typical commercial assumptions.” As the space expands from injectables to convenient orals like orforglipron, Citi suspects a “dynamic” consumer-centric market could emerge. Lilly’s LillyDirect is well suited to link high consumer visibility for orforglipron with global access, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm evaluated penetration rates using income-based tiers for pricing and out-of-pocket costs in low- and mid-body mass index patients. The analysis pegs Lilly’s consumer platform opportunity at $15B, which isn’t assumed in CIti’s model, the analyst says. The firm believes Lilly could more rapidly accelerate outside the U.S. access, utilizing a centralized out-of-pocket payment model versus the usual country-by-country launch. “An income-based tiered pricing of orforglipron via LillyDirect could unlock unprecedented volume all the while allowing it to maintain overall pricing power,” Citi contends.