Circle initiated, CoreWeave downgraded: Wall Street’s top analyst calls

The most talked about and market moving research calls around Wall Street are now in one place. Here are today’s research calls that investors need to know, as compiled by The Fly.

Top 5 Upgrades:

• TD Cowen upgraded Capital One (COF) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $258, up from $184. The firm says that with Discover acquisition, Capital One is now one of the “rare companies that owns an actual payment network.”
• Raymond James upgraded PNC Financial (PNC) to Outperform from Market Perform with a $220 price target. The upgrade reflects PNC’s ongoing net interest income momentum, as well as the expansion in fees given the rise in equity markets and momentum in capital markets revenues in the second half of 2025, the firm tells investors in a research note.
• KeyBanc upgraded Sunrun (RUN) to Sector Weight from Underweight without a price target. The company “lives to see another day” after the provision in the Big Beautiful Bill denying investment tax credits to leased equipment was modified to exclude solar at the last moment, the firm tells investors in a research note. KeyBanc also upgraded SolarEdge (SEDG) to Sector Weight from Underweight.
• Deutsche Bank upgraded General Dynamics (GD) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $342, up from $298. The company offers better EBIT growth relative to peers and more upside to consensus estimates, the firm tells investors in a research note.
• Melius Research upgraded Vertiv (VRT) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $165, up from $134. Following five months on the sidelines, the firm is returning to its long-term positive view on Vertiv shares as capex risks have dissipated and the race to spend on AI “seems back on track, arguably has even accelerated.”

Top 5 Downgrades:

• Mizuho downgraded CoreWeave (CRWV) to Neutral from Outperform with a price target of $150, up from $70. While the firm believes the company’s acquisition of Core Scientific (CORZ) brings additional financing flexibility and expanded internal expertise, Mizuho acknowledges that CoreWeave’s “extremely high volatile” presents risks to both the upside and downside. Stifel also downgraded CoreWeave to Hold from Buy with a price target of $115, up from $75.
• HSBC downgraded JPMorgan (JPM) to Reduce from Hold with a price target of $259, up from $237. The firm is more cautious on universal banks and brokers following the recent rally in the shares. HSBC also downgraded Goldman Sachs (GS) to Reduce from Hold and Bank of America (BAC) to Hold from Buy.
• Guggenheim downgraded Datadog (DDOG) to Sell from Neutral with a $105 price target, citing the risk of potential significant optimization by OpenAI, which the firm believes to be Datadog’s largest customer.
• Loop Capital downgraded Shake Shack (SHAK) to Hold from Buy with a $127 price target. The stock recently surpassed the firm’s price target after surging approximately 60% over just the last couple of months, and while Loop remains positive on Shake Shack’s near and long-term story, its current valuation accurately reflects the company’s attractive fundamentals, the firm says.
• TD Cowen downgraded Enphase Energy (ENPH) to Hold from Buy with a price target of $45, down from $58. The firm believes the elimination of 25D rooftop solar tax credit at the end of 2025 in the One Big Beautiful Bill will negatively impact U.S. customer-owned residential solar demand, which is currently challenged due to elevated interest rates.

Top 5 Initiations:

• Mizuho initiated coverage of Circle (CRCL) with an Underperform rating and $85 price target. The firm is bearish on the shares, saying it sees 25%-30% potential downside to the fiscal 2027 consensus revenue estimate of $4.5B.
• Lucid Capital initiated coverage of WW (WW) with a Buy rating and $60 price target. The firm says the company emerged from a voluntary bankruptcy process on June 24 “in its strongest position in years.”
• BTIG initiated coverage of Airo Group (AIRO) with a Buy rating and $26 price target. The firm views Airo as a “differentiated” aerospace, autonomy, and air mobility company. Mizuho also started coverage of Airo Group with an Outperform rating and $31 price target.
• Bernstein initiated coverage of Bilibili (BILI) with an Outperform rating and $28 price target. The company offers a compelling way to play the secular themes of the online video market, the firm tells investors in a research note.
• Benchmark initiated coverage of Semler Scientific (SMLR) with a Buy rating and $101 price target. As of July 2, Semler had amassed about 4,636 bitcoins for $430M, which translated to an average cost of $92,753 per bitcoin, and its BTC Yield is 294%, while its valuation has lagged those of other companies that last year made bitcoin acquisition the primary focus of their corporate strategies, the firm notes.