Charged: Solar stocks under pressure after House passes revised tax bill

Institutional investors and professional traders rely on The Fly to keep up-to-the-second on breaking news in the electric vehicle and clean energy space, as well as which stocks in these sectors that the best analysts on Wall Street are saying to buy and sell.

From the hotly-debated high-flier Tesla (TSLA), Wall Street’s newest darling Rivian (RIVN), traditional-stalwarts turned EV-upstarts GM (GM) and Ford (F) to the numerous SPAC-deal makers that have come public in this red-hot space, The Fly has you covered with “Charged,” a weekly recap of the top stories and expert calls in the sector.

FOCUSED ON TESLA: Tesla CEO Elon Musk said via X, the platform formerly known as Twitter, “Back to spending 24/7 at work and sleeping in conference/server/factory rooms. I must be super focused on X/xAI and Tesla (plus Starship launch next week), as we have critical technologies rolling out. As evidenced by the X uptime issues this week, major operational improvements need to be made. The failover redundancy should have worked, but did not.”

DARK CHAPTER IN REAR-VIEW: Wedbush raised the firm’s price target on Tesla to $500 from $350 and kept an Outperform rating on the shares as it believes the “dark chapter” for Elon Musk and Tesla, which created “brand damage and a black cloud over the story,” are “are in the rear-view mirror.” The firm now sees a recommitted Musk leading Tesla as CEO into the company’s autonomous and robotics future with his days in the White House “now essentially over.” While there is still “some wood to chop to turn around” Model Y growth in China and Europe, the core focus for investors is the artificial intelligence revolution that is “now coming to Tesla,” Wedbush tells investors in a research note. The firm believes this will make Tesla one of the best pure plays on AI over the next decade. The majority of valuation upside looking ahead for Tesla is centered around the success of its autonomous vision taking hold “with a key June launch in Austin the beginning of this next era of growth for Musk and Tesla,” Wedbush contends.

DECLINING INTEREST: UBS tells investors in a research note that the firm’s Global EV Adoption Outlook Consumer Survey suggests declining interest in Tesla in the U.S., China, and Europe. In the U.S., the firm notes a Tesla “saturation,” limited vehicle pickup, and affordability, while in China, the firm says Tesla is no longer seen as the technology leader. The firm maintains its Sell rating and $190 price target on Tesla shares, and says it remains cautious on the stock.

Click here to check out Tesla’s recent Media Buzz Sentiment as measured by TipRanks.

MORE EVS THAN TESLA: For the first time, BYD (BYDDF) sold more electric vehicles, EVs, in Europe than Tesla, with 7,231 fully electric BYD cars registered in Europe last month compared with 7,165 registrations for Tesla, Kana Inagaki of The Financial Times reports, citing research group Jato Dynamics. BYD’s aggressive expansion into Europe has coincided with a slump in sales for Tesla due to its older product portfolio and backlash related to Musk’s intervention in regional politics.

BUY BYD: Erste Group initiated coverage of BYD with a Buy rating. The company has “outstanding expertise” in battery technology for electric vehicles, the firm tells investors in a research note. Erste Group says BYD has a very broad range of attractively priced vehicles and is the leading global manufacturer of battery-powered electric cars.

REVISED TAX BILL: Shares of solar stocks were (RUN), Enphase (ENPH), SolarEdge (SEDG), Arry (ARRY), FTC Solar (FTCI), SunPower (SPWR), Maxeon Solar (MAXN), Emeren (SOL), Shoals Technologies (SHLS), First Solar (FSLR), Canadian Solar (CSIQ), and JinkoSolar (JKS).

SELL SUNRUN: BMO Capital downgraded Sunrun to Underperform from Market Perform with a price target of $4, down from $9. The firm says revisions to President Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” if adopted, suggest Sunrun’s ability to claim the solar investment tax credit on residential solar leases under Section 48E in fiscal 2026 and beyond is in jeopardy. While the bill is not finalized and could undergo multiple iterations in the Senate, with the elimination of section 25D residential credits in last week’s draft, there is limited political will to claw back residential credits in any Senate version, BMO tells investors in a research note. The firm says that with over 90% of Sunrun’s customers under third-party ownership structures whereby homeowners’ lease or rent their solar equipment and the company retains tax credits, the termination of 48E for residential solar leases is a “material risk” to the company’s business model.

TO THE SIDELINES: Northland upgraded SolarEdge to Market Perform from Underperform with an unchanged price target of $15.50. Shares have declined meaningfully since the firm’s downgrade on May 16, notes the firm, which argues that regardless of what legislation ultimately looks like, utility-scale solar is “the cheapest and fastest way to add generation capacity” and SolarEdge is well-positioned as a non-Chinese supplier with cybersecurity capabilities.

BUY XPENG: Macquarie upgraded XPeng (XPEV) to Outperform from Neutral with a price target of $24, up from $22, after the company reported Q1 results. XPeng continues to execute ahead of expectations in a difficult domestic EV market, says the firm, which believes that strong launches of the M03 MAX and G7 could drive momentum and support a re-rating. Macquarie raised its volume forecast by 5% in FY25 to 473,000 units increased its FY25 sales estimates to RMB 81B.