Carrier assuming flat volume in North American residential market next year

Speaking at the Baird Global Industrial Conference, executives from Carrier Global (CARR) stated: “As we mentioned at earnings, our number one priority right now is to ensure destocking headwinds do not persist into next year by ending this year with field inventories down 30%, a field inventory unit level not seen since 2018-2019. As of today, we are in good position to achieve that, having exited October with field inventory down about over 25% versus last year. We will discuss more on our 2026 outlook, including the North American resi market, when we report earnings in the new year. For now, we are assuming a flat volume market for next year. It is a very short-cycle business, as we all know, and we will be in a better position to opine on 2026 when we give our guidance in February. We do believe the coming few years are poised for a gradual recovery to that 9 million unit that I mentioned. The good news is that our gross margins are high in this business, and when revenues do recover, which they will, we are positioned for outsized top and bottom line growth.”