Bulls more bullish, one bear less bearish on Meta ahead of earnings

Meta Platforms (META), the parent company of Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp, Oculus, Threads and other brands, is scheduled to report second quarter 2025 results after market close on Wednesday, July 30 with a conference call scheduled for 5 pm ET. Here’s what to watch for:

EXPECTATIONS: Last quarter, Meta Platforms reported earnings of $6.43 per share on revenue of $42.31B, topping analyst estimates, as CEO Mark Zuckerberg called the quarter “a strong start to an important year.”

In terms of guidance, the company said it expects second quarter total revenue to be in the range of $42.5B-$45.5B, compared to analysts’ consensus forecast at that time of $43.81B.

Current consensus EPS and revenue forecasts for Meta’s June-end quarter stand at $5.90 and $44.84B, respectively, according to LSEG Data and Analytics. The consensus EPS and revenue forecasts for Meta’s September-end quarter reported by LSEG Data stand at $6.01 and $46.29B, respectively.

BEAR LESS BEARISH, BULLS MORE BULLISH: On July 3, Needham upgraded Meta Platforms to Hold from Underperform with no price target. Channel checks are driving upside to the firm’s estimates, but the analyst remains on the sidelines with a Hold because the firm believes Meta’s strategy diffusion “wastes capital and adds risks” and the the company’s margins and free cash flow are under structural downward pressure. About 90% of the 50 analysts that cover the stock have a Buy or Strong Buy rating, which implies in the firm’s view that Meta shares are over-owned despite what the firm sees as its regulatory risks, the analyst added.

More recently, Citi reiterated a Buy rating on Meta Platforms with an $803 price target, saying the online advertising environment is strengthening. As such, Meta is well positioned to report better than expected results for Q2, the analyst told investors. It sees multiple growth catalysts for the company.

Canaccord has raised the firm’s price target on Meta Platforms to $850 from $825 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares, which remain its top digital advertising pick. Despite a premium valuation, the firm continues to favor Meta given the breadth of growth tailwinds. Reels, Shopping, and Overlay ads continue to attract greater budget allocations among DPI clients, and while Reels could subside as a tailwind in 2026, the introduction of ads on WhatsApp, coupled with Meta’s Business AI offering, could help bridge the gap, analysts at the firm have stated.

Earlier this week, Guggenheim raised the firm’s price target on Meta Platforms to $800 from $725. The firm, which keeps a Buy rating on the shares, said intra-quarter ad checks indicate continued Direct Response demand strength, fueled by progress on Advantage+. Meanwhile, the firm believes that the magnitude of opportunity and the competitive intensity in pursuing AI growth are likely to fuel further “aggressiveness in investment” from Meta and higher levels of sustained capex than the firm previously modeled, the analyst added in a preview.

AI AMBITIONS: Along with Q1 earnings, the company said it expected full year 2025 total expenses to be in the range of $113-118B, lowered from a prior outlook of $114-119B, and that it anticipated 2025 capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, will be in the range of $64-72B, increased from a prior outlook of $60-65B. “This updated outlook reflects additional data center investments to support our artificial intelligence efforts as well as an increase in the expected cost of infrastructure hardware,” Meta added.

In June, Scale AI announced “a significant new investment” from Meta that values Scale at over $29B. “The agreement will also substantially expand Scale and Meta’s commercial relationship to accelerate deployment of Scale’s data solutions. In addition, Scale’s founder, Alexandr Wang, is joining Meta to work on Meta’s AI efforts… Following its investment, Meta will hold a minority of Scale’s outstanding equity,” the company stated.

Later in that month, Mark Gurman, Katie Roof and Riley Griffin of Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter, that Meta held talks with Perplexity AI about a possible takeover before moving ahead with an investment in Scale AI. Meta and Perplexity couldn’t come to an agreement and decided not to pursue the deal, sources told Bloomberg.

Around that same time, Kate Rooney of CNBC reported, citing sources familiar with the matter, that Meta tried to acquire Safe Superintelligence, the artificial intelligence startup launched by OpenAI co-founder Ilya Sutskever. When Sutskever rebuffed the offer as well as Meta’s attempt to hire him, Mark Zuckerberg moved to recruit the Safe Superintelligence’s CEO and co-founder Daniel Gross instead, sources told CNBC. Zuckerberg also started recruiting former GitHub CEO Nat Friedman when the Safe Superintelligence talks ended, according to the website. Both men are joining Meta as part and the company will take a stake in their venture fund, one source told CNBC.

In a report published on July 11, Hayden Field of The Verge said that Meta had reportedly poached as many as 10 of OpenAI’s top researchers and model developers, with some of its pay packages totaling up to $300M over four years. However, money can’t buy everyone, and Anthropic and DeepMind have reported fewer defections to Meta than Microsoft-backed (MSFT) OpenAI due to employees’ belief in the companies. Additionally, in a sector where almost any company will offer job security and a good salary, experienced AI engineers and researchers want to work somewhere that aligns with their values, leading to some turning down Meta’s advances. However, especially at OpenAI, Meta has found the dollar value of company loyalty and has exceeded it. “For the people that were that mission-driven, there’s already been so much organizational turbulence…that people are less anchored to the institution itself, so it’s easier to poach,” one source familiar with the situation told The Verge.

This morning, Meta Founder and CEO Mark Zuckerberg shared his vision to bring personal superintelligence to everyone. “We believe in putting this power in people’s hands to direct it towards what they value in their own lives,” Zuckerberg said in a letter posted by the company. “Over the last few months we have begun to see glimpses of our AI systems improving themselves. The improvement is slow for now, but undeniable. Developing superintelligence is now in sight. It seems clear that in the coming years, AI will improve all our existing systems and enable the creation and discovery of new things that aren’t imaginable today… I am extremely optimistic that superintelligence will help humanity accelerate our pace of progress. But perhaps even more important is that superintelligence has the potential to begin a new era of personal empowerment where people will have greater agency to improve the world in the directions they choose. Meta’s vision is to bring personal superintelligence to everyone. We believe in putting this power in people’s hands to direct it towards what they value in their own lives… Meta believes strongly in building personal superintelligence that empowers everyone. We have the resources and the expertise to build the massive infrastructure required, and the capability and will to deliver new technology to billions of people across our products. I’m excited to focus Meta’s efforts towards building this future.”

SENTIMENT: Click here to check out recent Media Buzz Sentiment on Meta as measured by TipRanks.