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BofA says UnitedHealth comments imply some pressure in commercial book of biz

BofA notes that at UnitedHealth (UNH) Group annual general meeting, the CEO said the company will provide an updated 2025 guidance with Q2 results on July 29. The firm had expected the guide with Q2 now but will likely need to wait two weeks longer, which extends the Q2 uncertainty. In addition, the company’s comments implied some potential pressure in the commercial book of business, without giving details. This comes after competitor Elevance (ELV) sounded cautious on trend in ACA exchanges and Medicaid. Overall, if the trend issues a headwind for MCOs, this could be a tailwind for health care providers, BofA adds. The firm maintains its Neutral rating on UnitedHealth given the Medicare Advantage overhang but depressed valuation, as it awaits more clarity. BofA prefers post-acute care providers in the current environment, with Encompass (EHC) being its top pick.

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