Alcoa sees FY25 alumina production 9.7M-9.9M mt

The company states: “Alcoa (AA) expects 2026 total Alumina segment production to range between 9.7 and 9.9 million metric tons, an increase from 2025 due to productivity improvements. In 2026, alumina shipments are expected to be between 11.8 and 12.0 million metric tons. The difference between production and shipments, which decreased from 2025, reflects trading volumes and externally sourced alumina to fulfill customer contracts. Alcoa expects 2026 total Aluminum segment production to range between 2.4 and 2.6 million metric tons, an increase from 2025 due to smelter restarts. In 2026, aluminum shipments are expected to range between 2.6 and 2.8 million metric tons. Within the first quarter 2026 Alumina Segment Adjusted EBITDA, the Company expects sequential unfavorable impacts of $30 million due to the typical first quarter impacts from the beginning of maintenance cycles and lower alumina shipments, as well as lower price and volume from bauxite offtake and supply agreements. For the first quarter 2026 Aluminum Segment Adjusted EBITDA, Alcoa expects sequential unfavorable impacts of $70 million due to the absence of Spain and Norway carbon dioxide compensation recognized in the fourth quarter 2025 and higher production costs associated with the restart of the San Ciprian smelter.” Based on current alumina and aluminum market conditions, Alcoa expects first quarter 2026 operational tax expense to approximate $65 million to $75 million, which may vary with market conditions and jurisdictional profitability.