Intel (INTC) is heading into a pivotal moment as the countdown begins to its fourth-quarter 2025 earnings report, due out after markets close this evening. With expectations running high following a strong rally in recent months, investors appear to be holding steady, with the stock trading flat ahead of the print.
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This earnings report carries more weight than a typical quarterly update. After spending several years under pressure from execution missteps and intensifying competition, Intel has managed to rebuild momentum, helped by renewed confidence in its manufacturing roadmap, improving server demand, and a more supportive macro and policy backdrop. Still, today’s results will help determine whether the recent optimism is justified or whether expectations have run ahead of fundamentals.
Heading into the release, Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon, who ranks in the top 1% of Wall Street stock experts, has nudged his estimates modestly higher, largely on the back of stronger expectations for Intel’s server business. Rasgon now forecasts fourth-quarter revenue of $13.5 billion and earnings of $0.10 per share – both slightly above his prior view and marginally ahead of consensus. That said, the analyst tempered the upside by trimming his outlook for the PC segment, pointing to lingering demand softness and ongoing concerns about excess inventory in that market.
According to Rasgon, server dynamics appear supportive, aided by tight CPU supply and improving demand tied to AI-related workloads. While some of that tightness reflects broader market conditions, Intel itself has also been part of the constraint, which has had the side effect of propping up pricing and margins.
Looking further ahead, Rasgon’s model reflects steady, but not explosive, growth. The analyst nudged up his 2026 and 2027 forecasts slightly, though his estimates remain below broader Street expectations, particularly as higher capital spending on foundry ambitions continues to weigh on free cash flow and returns. Yield improvements on Intel’s advanced nodes still have room to run, but progress will need to be tangible to keep valuation concerns at bay.
Rasgon also points to recent political backing as a positive, highlighting public praise from Donald Trump following the U.S. government’s acquisition of roughly a 10% equity stake in Intel last year as part of a broader effort to strengthen domestic chip manufacturing.
Even so, that support doesn’t tip the scales just yet. For Rasgon, the setup is improving, but not compelling enough to justify a buy heading into tonight’s results.
“Fundamentals and valuation keep us sidelined even amid Trump’s blessing,” the analyst summed up. In line with that view, he rates INTC a Market Perform (i.e., Neutral) and assigns a $36 price target, a level that sits ~34% below where the stock trades today. (To watch Rasgon’s track record, click here)
Stepping back, Wall Street as a whole remains cautious heading into the print. The broader analyst community currently assigns Intel a Hold consensus rating, based on 32 analyst ratings over the past three months. Those ratings break down into 9 Buys, 19 Holds, and 4 Sells. That caution is even clearer in the price targets; the average 12-month target sits at $44.55, implying ~18% downside for the next 12 months. (See INTC stock forecast)
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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.