Rivian Automotive (RIVN) has become one of the most talked-about electric vehicle companies on the market, but its stock performance has been quite volatile over the past several years. As a result, understanding the firm’s catalysts and risks is crucial for investors.
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Catalysts that May Push the Stock Higher
One major upside for Rivian (RIVN) is the upcoming launch of its more affordable R2 SUV, which is expected to widen the firm’s addressable market while improving sales volume and unit economics. The long-term potential of Rivian’s partnership with Amazon (AMZN) is another bright spot. Amazon, which owns a sizable stake in the company, has ordered 100,000 electric delivery vans from Rivian that will be delivered through 2030.
As those deliveries scale up, they provide a solid source of revenue while helping Rivian build its reputation in the commercial fleet market. This provides Rivian with an opportunity to expand into other commercial partnerships or fleet sales, which could help reduce earnings volatility and grow its consumer business.
Another catalyst could be the market’s appetite for EV companies. If Rivian can improve its gross margins and costs in order to get closer to positive free cash flow, investor sentiment may quickly turn more bullish. In addition, any broader rebound in EV stock valuations, driven by lower interest rates or renewed enthusiasm in green energy, could lift Rivian’s share price substantially.
Risks to Watch Out For
However, like all companies, there are risks that investors need to watch out for. One key risk is the firm’s financial losses. In fact, Rivian is burning billions in cash and doesn’t expect to become profitable for several years. As a result, any delays in ramping production or unexpected cost overruns, particularly with the R2 launch, could shake investor confidence. A perfect example of this came earlier today, as Rivian shares sank after the firm narrowed its delivery outlook to a lower midpoint than previously stated.
Product reliability and regulatory recalls are also serious concerns. In 2025, Rivian issued recalls for over 17,000 vehicles due to headlight issues, and later for more than 24,000 units over a driver-assistance glitch in its highway assist features. It is worth noting that recalls can ruin consumer trust and raise costs, which could lead to scrutiny from regulators. Moreover, some critics warn that Rivian is burning capital every time it expands and that each new factory may destroy value unless demand scales reliably.
There’s also the macroeconomic backdrop to consider. Indeed, high interest rates, inflationary pressures, and weakening consumer demand for big-ticket items like vehicles could hurt Rivian’s sales outlook. Since Rivian targets a premium buyer, any softening in consumer spending could impact demand for its higher-priced models.
Is RIVN Stock a Buy or Sell?
Turning to Wall Street, analysts have a Hold consensus rating on RIVN stock based on seven Buys, 12 Holds, and three Sells assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. Furthermore, the average RIVN price target of $14.03 per share implies 3.7% upside potential.
