Tether CEO Paolo Ardoino is sounding the alarm on a massive decoupling event, warning that an AI-driven market bubble could be the primary wrecking ball for Bitcoin in 2026. Speaking on the Bitcoin Capital podcast, Ardoino cautioned that Bitcoin remains “still too much correlated” to traditional capital markets, making it vulnerable to a theorized stock market collapse fueled by unsustainable AI spending.
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The stablecoin chief pointed to the “arms race” for energy and hardware as a potential breaking point. “That is the so-called AI bubble, this concern about the fact that AI companies are spending too much money in AI infrastructure and data centers and trying to build a gazillion gigawatts of power,” Ardoino stated verbatim.
The “AI Infrastructure” Overhang Threatens BTC Stability
Ardoino’s thesis centers on the massive capital flight into AI GPUs and power grids, which he believes has created a fragile dependency. If the AI sentiment shifts in 2026, he predicts the resulting “stock market turmoil in the US” will inevitably bleed into Bitcoin’s price action.
However, unlike previous bear markets, Ardoino expects the “institutional floor” to prevent a total wipeout. He noted that due to growing adoption by governments and pension funds, “sharp corrections of 80%, like we saw in 2022 or early 2018, might not be the case anymore”. Despite this, he remains wary of Bitcoin becoming too “Wall Street,” warning: “You don’t want 99% of Bitcoin being institutionalized”.
Tokenization Emerges as the “Massive” 2026 Growth Engine
While cautious about AI, Ardoino is aggressively bullish on Real-World Asset (RWA) tokenization. He predicts that tokenized securities and commodities are “going to be massive” by 2026, serving as a primary driver for the broader crypto industry.
Tether is already positioning itself for this shift, recently expanding its Hadron by Tether platform to help institutions tokenize stocks, bonds, and funds with integrated compliance tools. Ardoino views this as the logical evolution of the market, though he distinguishes between productive “operational” businesses and companies that are “just treasury companies,” expressing a notably bearish view on the latter.
Europe Gets Labeled the “Last Wheel” amid MiCA Friction
Ardoino did not hold back on his disdain for European regulatory efforts, specifically the Markets in Crypto-Assets (MiCA) framework. He argued that the region is suffocating innovation through over-regulation, stating: “Europe will always remain the last wheel of the cart whenever we talk about innovation”.
His “bearish” outlook on Europe stems from a belief that regulators are “trying to regulate something that it doesn’t understand yet”. Tether has famously refused to comply with certain MiCA requirements, leading to the delisting of USDT from several European exchanges. Ardoino suggests this regulatory friction will keep Europe lagging behind the U.S. and emerging markets throughout 2026.
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