Tesla (TSLA) is being valued more like a futuristic AI company than a carmaker right now, largely due to the excitement about its robotaxi progress. But according to some experts, its main business of selling electric vehicles is only worth a small part of its current market value. Indeed, five-star analyst Jed Dorsheimer, head of energy research at William Blair, explained that Tesla is now being judged more on its energy and autonomy plans than its car sales. As a result, he estimates that the auto part of the business is worth only $30 to $40 per share.
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Despite this, Tesla’s stock has jumped more than 3% in the past week, even as the overall market declined. This rally has been fueled by reports of Tesla testing driverless robotaxis in Austin, Texas, and investor belief that Tesla is shifting from a struggling EV maker to a leader in self-driving technology. Interestingly, Dorsheimer believes that the market already sees this shift as complete. In his view, Tesla is now being valued for its future in robotics and artificial intelligence, including its humanoid robot, Optimus.
Therefore, Dorsheimer estimates that autonomy now makes up more than 70% of Tesla’s total value. He also notes that Tesla’s energy business may now be worth more than the car business. However, he warns that much of the stock’s value depends on future results rather than current earnings. In fact, Tesla still earns most of its money from selling EVs in a competitive, regulated market. And earlier this week, California regulators told Tesla to clarify or change its “autopilot” marketing, which suggests that the road to full autonomy won’t be easy.
What Is the Prediction for TSLA Stock?
Turning to Wall Street, analysts have a Hold consensus rating on TSLA stock based on 12 Buys, 12 Holds, and nine Sells assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. Furthermore, the average TSLA price target of $383.83 per share implies 18.1% downside risk.
