Tesla’s (TSLA) vehicle shipments from its China factory dropped in 2025, even though December showed a small improvement. More specifically, the EV maker delivered 851,732 vehicles from its Shanghai plant last year, about 7% less than in 2024, according to early data from the China Passenger Car Association. Interestingly, December accounted for 97,171 of those shipments, making it only the fourth month of the year in which deliveries increased year-over-year.
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This decline highlights the challenges that Tesla is facing, especially after reporting its second straight year of falling global deliveries. Although third-quarter numbers saw a temporary boost from customers rushing to buy EVs before U.S. subsidies expired, demand has since weakened as governments around the world reduce financial support for electric vehicles. Tesla also continues to face consumer backlash following Elon Musk’s political involvement in 2025.
To make matters worse, Tesla also lost its spot as the world’s top EV maker to China’s BYD (BYDDF). In fact, local competition in China has grown quickly, especially from companies like Xiaomi (XIACF). Notably, the tech company’s new YU7 SUV is directly targeting Tesla’s Model Y, and its sales in November nearly matched it, with 33,591 units sold for YU7 versus 33,935 for the Model Y. Despite Tesla’s struggles, the overall Chinese EV market remains strong, as December new-energy vehicle sales rose 4% year-over-year, and full-year sales were up about 25%.
What Is the Prediction for TSLA Stock?
Turning to Wall Street, analysts have a Hold consensus rating on TSLA stock based on 13 Buys, 10 Holds, and eight Sells assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. Furthermore, the average TSLA price target of $395.89 per share implies 13.3% downside risk.
