Electric vehicle (EV) maker Tesla (TSLA) is scheduled to report its second-quarter earnings after the market closes on Wednesday, July 23. TSLA stock has declined 19% year-to-date, reflecting investors’ concerns about weak sales amid intense competition in the EV space, margin pressures, CEO Elon Musk’s political ambitions, and the loss of Federal EV credits. Wall Street expects Tesla to report earnings per share (EPS) of $0.39, reflecting a 25% year-over-year decline.
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Analysts expect the company’s bottom line to be impacted by a 13% decline in revenue to $22.19 billion and lower margins.
As seen in this chart from Main Street Data, Tesla’s Q2 deliveries declined 13.5% year-over-year to around 384,120 vehicles. Investors will look forward to management’s commentary on the demand backdrop in the EV space amid tough macro conditions and growing competition, the launch of low-cost EV models, further rollout of robotaxis, and the changing regulatory landscape.
Analysts’ Views Ahead of Tesla’s Q2 Earnings
Heading into Q2 results, Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard reiterated a Buy rating on Tesla stock with a price target of $335. The 5-star analyst updated his Q2 estimates to reflect Tesla’s deliveries and lower-than-expected deployment of energy storage products in the quarter. Sheppard expects Q2 revenue to come in at about $21 billion, down from his prior estimate of $24.1 billion.
Interestingly, Sheppard kept his 2025 and 2026 annual revenue and EPS estimates intact. The analyst views the company’s robotaxi business as a “software-as-a-service, high-margin model,” and expects it to have the ability to rapidly scale following commercialization. Sheppard remains confident about Tesla’s ability to capture a significant share of the autonomous driving and ride-sharing industries.
Meanwhile, Barclays analyst Dan Levy reiterated a Hold rating on Tesla stock with a price target of $275. Interestingly, Levy believes that even as the company faces “increasingly weaker fundamentals,” TSLA stock could outperform following Q2 results as investors focus on long-term robotaxi ambitions. The analyst added that Tesla’s Q2 earnings call presents an opportunity for the company’s robotaxi/autonomous vehicle (AV) narrative to shine. He thinks that Musk might discuss fleet growth targets or expansion plans during the call.
While Levy expects a slight sequential improvement in Tesla’s auto gross margin (excluding regulatory credits), he cautioned that margins will likely remain depressed compared to prior years. The analyst also noted the decline in Tesla’s full-year EPS estimate from over $3.20 at the beginning of the year to $1.84. Levy believes that the expected delay in the launch of Tesla’s low-cost model could also weigh on investor sentiment.
AI Analyst Is Bullish on Tesla Stock Ahead of Q2 Print
TipRanks’ AI stock analysis reflects an Outperform rating on Tesla stock with a price target of $351, reflecting a 6.85% upside potential. The AI analyst rating is based on strong financial performance and favorable aspects highlighted during the Q1 earnings call. However, technical indicators are mixed and valuation looks elevated.
Options Traders See Major Movement in TSLA Stock on Q2 Earnings
Using TipRanks’ Options tool, we can see what options traders are expecting from the stock immediately after its earnings report. The expected earnings move is determined by calculating the at-the-money straddle of the options closest to expiration after the earnings announcement. If this sounds complicated, don’t worry, the Options tool does this for you.
Indeed, it currently says that options traders are expecting about a 7.36% move in either direction in Tesla stock in reaction to Q2 results.
Is TSLA Stock a Buy or Sell?
Given the ongoing challenges, Wall Street has a Hold consensus rating on Tesla stock based on 13 Buys, 13 Holds, and eight Sell recommendations. The average TSLA stock price target of $299.52 indicates a downside risk of 8.8% from current levels.
