Tesla stock (TSLA) ticked higher early Wednesday after another late-night post from CEO Elon Musk stirred new anticipation around the company’s self-driving push. The move came even as traditional auto metrics, like deliveries and earnings, continue to trend lower. Investors are once again choosing to focus on Tesla’s long-term AI ambitions rather than its near-term challenges, which is a pattern that has defined much of the past year.
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Musk wrote that Tesla’s Austin robo-taxi fleet should “roughly double next month,” giving shareholders exactly the kind of roadmap they have been hoping for. His comment follows a weekend note about Tesla’s in-house AI computing chips, which helped lift the stock almost 7% on Monday. Tesla shares were up 1.1% at $423.84 in early trading Wednesday, outpacing the modest 0.1% rise in S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average futures.
Musk Expands the Robo-Taxi Vision
Tesla launched its Austin robo-taxi service in June with a small fleet and safety monitors in the passenger seat. Since then, the company has gradually widened its operational footprint across the city. Investors see this as more than a regional experiment. It is a signal that Tesla is laying the foundation for a national rollout, even if the timeline has slipped from Musk’s original ambitions.
Earlier in 2025, Musk suggested that Tesla robo-taxis would cover half of the U.S. population by year-end. This is pretty far-fetched. Still, the pace of testing and the surrounding regulatory work in cities like Las Vegas and San Francisco show Tesla is preparing for a far broader network. Shareholders are willing to tolerate delays as long as the direction remains clear and the fleet continues to grow.
Investors Focus on Tesla’s AI Growth
Tesla’s core auto business is contracting. The company is expected to deliver fewer than 1.7 million vehicles in 2025, down from just over 1.8 million in 2024. Earnings per share are projected to fall to $1.65 from $2.42 last year. Under normal circumstances, those numbers would weigh on a stock. Instead, Tesla’s share price has been buoyed by the belief that its future rides not on EV margins but on a coming wave of AI-driven revenue streams.
Robotaxis and humanoid robots sit at the center of that thesis. Many Tesla investors see autonomy as the company’s true growth engine, and Wednesday’s update reinforces that belief. The fleet may still require human monitors, but investors are betting that each incremental expansion brings Tesla closer to the scale needed to unlock new economics.
Despite the slow rollout, Tesla shareholders remain confident that autonomy will define the company’s next chapter. If the fleet in Austin does double next month, it will mark another step toward the vision that keeps Tesla bulls firmly in place.
Is Tesla a Buy, Hold, or Sell?
Turning to Wall Street, analysts have a Hold consensus rating on TSLA stock based on 14 Buys, 10 Holds, and 10 Sells assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. After a 24% rally in its share price over the past year, the average TSLA price target of $383.04 per share implies 8.7% downside risk.
