Tesla (TSLA) stock experienced a surprising surge on Wednesday, boosted by growing investor hopes for its Optimus humanoid robot program. Shares gained 4.1% as Wall Street analysts began attempting to quantify the immense potential value of the AI-trained robot business, even though truly useful humanoid robots are still not yet for sale.
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The stock strength was partly fueled by a research note from Barclays analyst Dan Levy. Levy wrote that the White House is considering a potential 2026 executive order related to humanoid robots, suggesting increased government involvement could “spur excitement on Optimus bull case.” Tesla CEO Elon Musk hopes to be selling Optimus to outside customers as soon as 2026.
Analysts Attach Massive Value to Robot Sales
Since Optimus is not yet for sale, there is no firm price, cost, or demand data for investors to examine, making the robot opportunity difficult to value. However, analysts are making bold guesses that attach enormous value to the program.
- RBC (RY) analyst Tom Narayan projects a massive $400 billion in robot sales by 2050. He discounts this value back to today, estimating the robot division is currently worth about $640 billion. This robot valuation accounts for more than one-third of his $500 price target for Tesla stock.
- Deutsche Bank (DB) analyst Edison Yu focuses on the near-term, projecting 1.25 million robots sold by 2035, generating $31 billion in revenue. He values that opportunity at $111 per share today, contributing heavily to his $470 price target.
Musk’s Pay Package Hedges Robot Bet
Analysts often infer economics based on Musk’s comments, such as an implied $20,000 per unit cost and an assumed 50% gross margin. The bullish projections suggest the company’s AI “moonshots” may land, particularly with the Optimus robot.
Investors should remember that Musk’s recently adopted trillion-dollar pay package includes a specific robot goal: Tesla needs to sell one million robots, cumulatively, by 2035. If the most bullish analyst forecasts prove correct, hitting that target will be simple.
Is Tesla a Buy, Hold, or Sell?
Analyst sentiment toward Tesla (TSLA) is currently cautious, rated as a Hold based on the consensus of 34 analysts tracked in the last three months. Of these ratings, 13 analysts call it a Buy, 11 recommend a Hold, and 10 recommend a Sell.
The average 12-month TSLA price target sits at $383.04. This target implies a downside potential of 14.26% from the last price.
