Tesla’s (TSLA) core car business is sinking while Elon Musk shifts the company’s identity toward robotaxis and humanoid robots—the future he’s betting the entire $300‑per‑share valuation on.
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Tesla’s vehicle deliveries fell sharply in the second quarter, down 13.5% year-over-year. That slump comes as rivals like GM, Ford and China’s BYD roll out sleek EV models and U.S. tax credits for electric‑vehicle purchases face potential cuts. Rather than double down on existing lineups, Musk is steering attention to autonomy and robotics—sectors where Tesla has no proven lead. Many analysts now value its core auto business at $50 to $100 per share, well below the current valuation .
Musk Pushes Autonomy Over Autos
Instead of advancing the $25,000 mass-market Model 2, Musk has pivoted to a Cybercab, an autonomous vehicle without steering wheels or pedals. He has frozen development on affordable models, reasoning that autonomy trumps accessibility. Tesla’s last new car, the Cybertruck, launched five years ago with weak sales. Its only focus now is slashing prices for existing models to sustain demand.
Autonomy Ambition Drives Wall Street Valuation
Tesla’s nearly $1 trillion market cap rests entirely on Musk’s autonomous vision. He recently launched robotaxis in Austin, with celebrations featuring pizza boxes and Diet Coke—an oddly cozy moment for a $5‑10 trillion ambition. In contrast, Tesla’s Q1 profit tanked 71%, barely buoyed by $595 million in carbon‑credit sales . Analysts expect Q2 profits to drop another ~20%. The core car business is bleeding, but Musk is promising salvation through autonomy.
Optimism and Oversight Crack at the Foundation
Despite Musk’s GOP ties and political battles, like public spats with Trump, Tesla’s board seems to back him. But internal upheaval hints at internal strain. Key figures left Optimus (Milan Kovac) and sales/manufacturing (Omead Afshar). That raises questions about Tesla’s ability to execute its moonshot.
Musk is racing Waymo, which already runs hundreds of autonomous taxis. Tesla’s rollout may have splashy visuals but lacks proven performance. Without real autonomy breakthroughs, investors risk pinning hopes on vaporware.
Is Tesla a Buy, Hold, or Sell?
According to TipRanks, Tesla currently holds a “Hold” consensus rating from 35 Wall Street analysts. Of those, 14 analysts rate the stock a Buy, 12 recommend Hold, and nine suggest Sell. The average 12-month price target for Tesla is $293.09, representing a 7.06% downside from its last closing price.
