Tesla Enters Make-or-Break Month as TSLA Stock Trips at the Start

Tesla’s long-teased robotaxi service is finally set to launch in Austin later this month. That’s been the big driver of its stock’s 46% rally since the April 22 Q1 earnings call. But now that launch month has arrived, Tesla (TSLA) shares are dipping — a classic case of investors pricing in the excitement early and taking profits once the event approaches.

The stock was trading at $339.20 on Monday, down 2.2%. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 and Dow were relatively flat. So what gives?

TSLA Bulls Say Robotaxi Is the Future — But the Math Is Stiff

Tesla’s robotaxi dream is ambitious. AI-driven autonomous vehicles, ordered like an Uber, but with no drivers to pay. That’s what CEO Elon Musk has been promising for years. If it works, it could be Tesla’s next major revenue pillar.

Forget buzzwords — this is Tesla’s shot at turning AI into cold, hard cash.

Even if the robotaxi system takes off, Tesla’s stock is already priced like it has. The company is trading at around 180x estimated 2025 earnings — double where it was before Q1. That’s one of the richest valuations in the market today.

And the company’s EV business? That’s been lagging. Sales fell 13% year over year in Q1. Operating profit plunged 66% to $399 million. That’s a tough backdrop for a company making a massive AI bet.

Former Longtime Tesla Bull Bails

Gary Black, co-founder of Future Fund Active ETF and a long-time TSLA bull, finally bailed. He sold all of his Tesla shares — the first time he’s done that since 2021. His reasoning? “Too expensive.”

Black still maintains a $310 price target. But even he says this run may have gotten ahead of itself.

Sell the News? Or Just a Pause?

June was supposed to be a launchpad. But instead, it’s starting with a reality check. With the robotaxi announcement already priced in and the market now demanding real results, Tesla has to deliver — fast.

Whether the Austin launch goes smoothly or not, the stock’s next move will depend on execution, not just hype. Investors may be excited about the future of autonomous rides — but in the short term, this may be a case of the market saying: “Prove it.”

Is Tesla a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Wall Street is split down the middle on Tesla (TSLA). According to TipRanks, the EV giant holds a “Hold” consensus rating from 37 analysts. That breaks down into 16 Buy ratings, 10 Holds, and 11 Sells. The average 12-month TSLA price target sits at $282.70—implying an 18% drop from today’s levels around $346.

In short, the Street isn’t fully sold on the robotaxi rally or the steep valuation it’s riding. Some see upside if Tesla nails execution. Others see too much froth, too fast. So while Tesla bulls may be betting on a breakout June, the broader analyst community is still waiting for the company to actually deliver before getting back in the driver’s seat.

See more TSLA analyst ratings