Tesla and Intel: J.P. Morgan Selects the Top Short Stocks for 2H25

The first half of 2025 gave us a wild ride. The markets dipped into and back out of correction territory, and economists worried that President Trump’s shake-up of tariff and trade policies would spark a recession. At the same time, both inflation and unemployment have trended downward – and in June, the higher tariffs brought an unexpected monthly surplus to the Federal budget.

But Trump clearly hasn’t finished implementing his new tariff regime, his ongoing cuts to the Federal workforce have yet to fully play out, and the Federal Reserve’s next steps are anyone’s guess. In this unsettled environment, investors are bracing for more twists and turns as policy changes continue to ripple through the economy.

It’s in this context that the global equity strategy team at JPMorgan is urging caution for the second half of the year. As they put it, “The biggest increase in tariffs in 70+ years has so far not shown an adverse impact on the economy, but we do not think that this will stay the case. Our economists are looking for halving in US growth rates in 2H, from 2% towards 1%, while at the same time US inflation is expected to pick up… Many expect that any potential growth slowing can be effectively countered by Fed easing, but historically Fed easing was not what the markets focused on in times of activity softening. Also, the risks here are over potential US inflation picking up on tariffs, Fed credibility being pressured, or simply the more challenging bonds behavior in light of 7%+ fiscal deficits.”

With that cautious backdrop, some of JPM’s stock analysts are aligning their strategy accordingly, selecting Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) and Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) as their top short position ideas for 2H25. Meanwhile, the TipRanks database shows that the Street, in general, is also taking a wary stance on both of these tech giants. Here’s a closer look at what’s driving that caution.

Tesla

The first short idea we’ll look at is Tesla. Elon Musk’s flagship company has been facing headwinds recently – and more than just the general sales decline that has been affecting the electric vehicle (EV) market. Musk put his personal prestige and abilities at the service of President Trump’s Department of Government Efficiency, and drew the ire of the President’s political foes – ire that was expressed, unfortunately, in the form of firebombed Tesla dealerships, vandalized Tesla automobiles, and calls to simply boycott the company. These woes have not fully passed, even though Musk has publicly split from the Trump Administration.

While these headwinds on the company are idiosyncratic to Elon Musk, Tesla itself, as a business, has its own mixture of strengths and weaknesses. To start with, even after having a rocky six months, the company still boasts a trillion-dollar market cap – making it the world’s largest automaker of any type. In addition, Tesla is one of the world’s leaders in the electric car industry, with a reputation for building quality vehicles with luxury styling.

Most importantly, Tesla is also looking at the future of automotive technology. The company has extensive research and development programs in AI, robotics, and autonomous vehicles. The overlap between these fields is obvious, with AI providing the ‘brains’ for robots and robocars, and the latter being mobile forms of autonomous computers. Tesla is moving forward with its robotaxi plans, and has applied with the State of Arizona to road-test its vehicle in Phoenix, with a decision from the state’s transportation department expected by the end of this month.

On the negative side of the ledger, Tesla’s EPS – famously, the company was the first 21st-century pure-play EV start-up to turn a profit – has been showing a downward slope in recent quarters, although the data is bumpy. The Trump Administration does not look favorably on subsidies for EVs, and Tesla’s cars are known for their price tags.

The drop in earnings was put into sharp relief in the 1Q25 earnings report, which missed the forecasts at both the top and bottom lines. Tesla posted revenue of $19.34 billion, missing estimates by $2 billion and marking a 9% year-over-year decrease. Earnings per share came in at just 27 cents, falling 15 cents short of what analysts had anticipated.

JPMorgan analyst Ryan Brinkman expresses caution regarding Tesla, citing its lofty valuation as he projects that EPS will decline for the third straight year in 2025. The analyst warns that shrinking government incentives for electric vehicles could further erode Tesla’s already thin profitability, as evidenced by EBIT margins trailing those of legacy automakers like General Motors and Ford. Additionally, Brinkman casts doubt on the much-hyped robotaxi initiative, pointing to the vehicle’s lack of sensor redundancy as a significant technical hurdle that may ultimately lead to underwhelming results.

Reflecting its status as one of J.P. Morgan’s top short ideas for the second half of 2025, Brinkman assigns an Underweight (i.e., Sell) rating to Tesla shares, with a price target of $115 that implies a potential 63% decline over the next year. (To watch Brinkman’s track record, click here)

Overall, Tesla shares gets a Hold (i.e., Neutral) rating from the Street’s consensus, based on 35 recent analyst reviews that include 13 Buys, 13 Holds, and 9 Sells. TSLA is currently priced at $310.78, and their $293.38 target implies a one-year downside of ~6%. (See TSLA stock forecast)

Intel

Next on JPM’s list of short takes is Intel, a well-known name in the PC and semiconductor chip industries. The company built its reputation designing and distributing processor chips for the personal computing sector, and currently has a grip on more than 70% of the market for personal computer CPUs. Intel is facing growing competition in that market, particularly from AMD, although its iCore chip series remains an industry standard.

This leading position in the PC market has continued to generate significant revenue for Intel, even as the broader semiconductor industry has rapidly shifted its focus toward AI-related products. While traditional CPUs remain an important part of Intel’s business, the company has faced clear challenges adapting to the new AI-driven landscape. In fact, Intel remains the fifth-largest chip company when measured by annual revenues – but much of this performance has come from its legacy markets, rather than breakthroughs in AI.

In response, Intel is now accelerating efforts to develop AI-capable chips, but entering this already crowded field is no easy feat. Recognizing the urgent need for change, Intel appointed Lip-Bu Tan as its new CEO in March. Tan brings deep industry expertise from his tenure as CEO of Cadence Design Systems and his previous experience on Intel’s board.

Under Lip‑Bu Tan’s leadership, Intel is now undertaking one of the largest restructurings in its history – cutting 15–20% of its workforce globally and initiating sweeping organizational changes across key divisions. These cost-reduction efforts, including refocusing on core PC, data center, and edge‑AI products, are designed to free up capital and bolster profitability. At the same time, the company is reevaluating its foundry roadmap – potentially shelving the expensive 18A process to redirect investment into a more advanced 14A node that could better compete with TSMC and attract marquee clients like Apple and Nvidia.

JPMorgan’s 5-star analyst Harlan Sur notes that Tan is focused on transforming Intel’s culture by cutting bureaucracy, flattening the organizational structure, empowering smaller teams, and placing a greater emphasis on execution and customer feedback. While Tan’s experience is a positive sign – particularly as Intel works to make up ground in AI – the company still faces an uphill battle. Sur points out that Intel must address process technology gaps and stabilize its share in both client and server CPUs if it hopes to thrive in an increasingly competitive landscape.

In line with J.P. Morgan’s selection of top short stocks for the second half of 2025, Sur assigns an Underweight (i.e., Sell) rating to INTC shares, setting a $20 price target that suggests ~13% downside from current levels. (To view Sur’s track record, click here)

More broadly, the Street maintains a Hold (i.e., Neutral) consensus rating on Intel shares, based on 31 analyst reviews that include just 1 Buy against 26 Holds and 4 Sells. The stock currently trades at $22.92, with an average price target of $21.60 suggesting potential downside of ~6% over the next year. (See INTC stock forecast)

To find good ideas for stocks trading at attractive valuations, visit TipRanks’ Best Stocks to Buy, a tool that unites all of TipRanks’ equity insights.

Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analysts. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.