Target Corporation (TGT) is scheduled to announce its results for the third quarter of Fiscal 2025 on Wednesday, November 19. TGT stock has declined by 34.5% year-to-date due to persistent weakness in the big-box retailer’s sales and margins. Wall Street expects Target’s Q3 FY25 revenue to decline by 1.3% year-over-year to $25.33 billion. Furthermore, the adjusted earnings per share (EPS) estimate of $1.71 indicates a year-over-year fall of 7.6% due to lower sales and margin pressures.
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Analysts’ Views Ahead of Target’s Q3 Earnings
Heading into Q3 earnings, Telsey analyst Joseph Feldman reiterated a Hold rating on Target stock with a price target of $110 based on a P/E (price-to-earnings) multiple of about 14x his new 2026 EPS estimate of $8.12. The 5-star analyst continues to expect Target to report “soft” performance in Q3 FY25, with comparable sales growth of -1.5% in line with the Street’s expectations. He expects TGT to deliver EPS of $1.76, down 5% from the prior-year quarter. Feldman’s estimates reflect cautious consumer spending on discretionary goods, higher costs, and tariff woes, partially offset by easier comparisons with the prior-year quarter that was hit by elevated digital fulfillment and supply chain costs.
The analyst remains concerned that Target is losing customers and market share to retailers like Amazon (AMZN), Costco (COST), and Walmart (WMT). Feldman noted that Target is trying to improve its business via value deals, enhanced loyalty, and strategic initiatives related to private brands, new stores, remodels, Target+ marketplace, and more. The analyst also noted TGT’s streamlining measures under CEO-elect Michael Fiddelke, which he believes are “the right steps to revive the business, although it may require patience to see results.”
Meanwhile, UBS analyst Michael Lasser reiterated a Buy rating on TGT stock with a price target of $130. The 5-star analyst believes that Target’s Q3 results are “unlikely to materially shift the ongoing investment debate around the retailer.” Lasser noted that Target hasn’t performed as hoped in recent years. Still, the analyst contends that at current levels, there is more upside to TGT stock than downside risk. Lasser believes that the upcoming months and quarters will be crucial for the retailer. He added that while the leadership transition already faced some challenges, it won’t matter if Target can improve execution and deliver more consistent results.
AI Analyst Is Bullish on TGT Stock Ahead of Q3 Print
Interestingly, TipRanks’ AI Analyst has assigned an Outperform rating to Target stock with a price target of $102, indicating about 15.3% upside potential. The AI analyst’s rating for Target reflects its financial performance (the retailer delivered better-than-expected Q2 earnings) and attractive valuation, offset by mixed technical indicators. However, challenges in top-line growth and longer-term bearish technical trends present risks. The AI Analyst also noted TGT’s high dividend yield.
Options Traders Anticipate a Major Move on Target’s Q3 Earnings
Using TipRanks’ Options tool, we can see what options traders are expecting from the stock immediately after its earnings report. The expected earnings move is determined by calculating the at-the-money straddle of the options closest to expiration after the earnings announcement. If this sounds complicated, don’t worry, the Options tool does this for you.
Indeed, it currently says that options traders are expecting about a 9.92% move in either direction in TGT stock in reaction to Q3 FY25 results.
Is TGT Stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Given near-term challenges, Wall Street has a Hold consensus rating on Target stock based on 13 Holds, eight Buys, and four Sell recommendations. The average TGT stock price target of $102.41 indicates about 16% upside potential from current levels.
