Super Micro Computer (SMCI) stock tanked 8.7% on Thursday after the artificial intelligence (AI) server maker provided a weak preliminary update for the first quarter of Fiscal 2026. SMCI now expects to report $5 billion in revenue for Q1 FY26, down from its previous guidance of $6 billion to $7 billion. Top Raymond James analyst retained a Buy rating following the update, while Mizuho analyst preferred to be on the sidelines. Let’s discuss the reactions of these Wall Street experts.
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Meanwhile, Super Micro explained that its Q1 revenue miss was due to deliveries pushed from Q1 to Q2 FY26 as customers upgrade their designs. SMCI reassured investors that customer demand is accelerating, and the company is gaining AI share. SMCI reiterated its FY26 revenue outlook of at least $33 billion, with the expectation of delivering more.
Top Raymond James Analyst Stays Bullish on SMCI Stock
Following the preliminary Q1 numbers, Raymond James analyst Simon Leopold reiterated a Buy rating on SMCI stock with a price target of $53. The 5-star analyst stated that he is deferring estimate revisions until he can assess the details more closely when the company formally reports Q1 FY26 results on November 4.
Leopold highlighted that management reiterated its FY26 revenue guidance and announced a new $12 billion design win (delivery in Q2 FY26). The analyst contended that while the news does not help build investor confidence, he views the update as “largely timing related and not thesis altering.”
Mizuho Analyst Reacts to SMCI’s Q1 Update
Meanwhile, Mizuho analyst Vijay Rakesh reiterated a Hold rating on Super Micro Computer stock with a price target of $50. The 5-star analyst noted that SMCI reported $12 billion of design wins in the September quarter, with customers looking to secure deliveries in the December quarter. Consequently, some of SMCI’s September quarter revenue is pushed to the December quarter, as demand for Nvidia’s (NVDA) GB300, B300, and RTX Pro remains strong, while Advanced Micro Devices’ (AMD) MI355X servers are also starting to ship, noted Rakesh.
Furthermore, Rakesh pointed out that Super Micro sees “potential for delivering more” with regard to its Fiscal 2026 revenue expectations as demand from key customers remains solid for DLC (direct liquid cooling) solutions.
Despite robust design wins, the top-rated analyst remains sidelined on SMCI stock as he sees Dell Technologies (DELL) continuing to take share in the Tier 2 CSP (cloud service provider) and Enterprise AI Server markets with large ramps at Oracle’s (ORCL) OCI (Oracle Cloud Infrastructure), xAI, and CoreWeave (CRWV), while noting advantages with its strong balance sheet, financing capabilities, enhanced services/support staff, and technical expertise.
Is SMCI Stock a Good Buy?
Currently, Wall Street has a Hold consensus rating on Super Micro Computer stock based on four Buys, eight Holds, and three Sell recommendations. The average SMCI stock price target of $43.69 indicates a possible downside of about 9% from current levels. Despite Thursday’s decline, SMCI stock is up 57% year-to-date.
