AI server maker Super Micro Computer (SMCI) is set to release its Q4 FY25 results after the market closes on August 5. The stock has gained above 85% year-to-date, as investor sentiment has improved in recent months, helped by new partnerships. Recently, it was named the exclusive server supplier for Digi Power X’s ARMS 200 data center platform. The company also signed a $20 billion deal with DataVolt to build large AI campuses in Saudi Arabia and the U.S.
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Wall Street analysts anticipate that the company will report earnings of $0.45 per share, reflecting a 29% year-over-year decrease. However, revenues are expected to rise by 13% from the same quarter last year, reaching $5.98 billion, according to data from the TipRanks Forecast page.
Analysts’ Views Ahead of Q4 Earnings
Ahead of Super Micro’s Q4 print, Citi analyst Asiya Merchant raised the stock’s price target to $52 from $37 but kept a Neutral rating. The analyst expects growth to be driven by stronger AI server demand and easing supply constraints for Nvidia (NVDA)’s Blackwell GPUs. However, she remains concerned about rising competition from Dell Technologies (DELL) and Hewlett Packard Enterprise (HPE), which could weigh on margins.
For the upcoming fourth quarter, Citi forecasts revenue of $6.07 billion, up 13.4% year-over-year and 32% sequentially, with EPS of $0.45, roughly in line with consensus. Looking ahead to Q1 FY26, the bank expects revenue of $7.02 billion and EPS of $0.65, both above Street estimates.
Meanwhile, BofA Securities analyst Ruplu Bhattacharya initiated coverage on Super Micro with an Underperform rating and a price target of $35, implying nearly 38% downside from current levels. He pointed to declining margins, limited component availability such as GPUs and liquid cooling systems, and increasing competition from other players in the AI server market.
Options Traders Anticipate a Large Move
Using TipRanks’ Options tool, we can see what options traders are expecting from the stock immediately after its earnings report. The expected earnings move is determined by calculating the at-the-money straddle of the options closest to expiration after the earnings announcement. If this sounds complicated, don’t worry; the Options tool does this for you.
Indeed, it currently says that options traders are expecting a 13.40% move in either direction.
Is SMCI Stock a Good Buy?
The stock of Super Micro Computer has a consensus Moderate Buy rating among 14 Wall Street analysts. That rating is based on six Buys, six Holds, and two Sell recommendations issued in the past three months. The average SMCI price target of $42.85 implies a 24.35% upside risk from current levels.
