Shares of Bitcoin (BTC-USD) treasury company Strategy (MSTR) have declined 39% over the past month amid a slump in the largest cryptocurrency and JPMorgan’s (JPM) warning about delisting risks. Notably, MSCI will decide on January 15 whether companies whose digital-asset holdings exceed 50% of total assets should remain eligible for traditional stock indices. In this scenario, independent researcher Shanaka Anslem Perera questioned the sustainability of MSTR’s Bitcoin strategy in a post on X.
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Independent Researcher Questions MSTR’s Bitcoin Bet
In a post on X, Perera highlighted that Strategy owns 649,870 Bitcoin or 3.26% of the total supply, at a cost of $48.37 billion. The analyst explained that with $54 million in cash and a software business that generates negative cash flow, Strategy will have to raise $700 million in new capital every year to pay this amount in preferred stock dividends before buying any BTC.
Perera noted that MSTR raised $19.5 billion in the first nine months of 2025, which wasn’t used for Bitcoin purchases but was directed toward servicing the debt from previous capital raises. “This is Ponzi finance by definition: borrowing to pay the interest on prior borrowing,” contends Perera.
He said this mechanism worked so far as MSTR stock traded above the value of the underlying cryptocurrency. He further explained that when MSTR stock traded at 2x net asset value, issuing equity increased Bitcoin per share for existing holders. However, this premium plunged to 1x in November 2025, and at this level, equity issuance leads to shareholder dilution.
He views MSCI’s upcoming decision on January 15 as a critical event that will decide MSTR’s fate. “Strategy is 77 percent Bitcoin. Exclusion is not discretionary. It is mechanical,” said Perera. He noted that, according to JPMorgan’s estimates, the removal of Strategy from MSCI could result in $2.8 billion in forced selling, with the risk of total outflows reaching $8.8 billion if other index providers follow.
“What happens in the next 90 days will define corporate finance and monetary competition for the next 50 years,” said Perera.
Debate on MSTR Continues
Many supporters of Strategy don’t agree with Perera’s analysis. Coinpaper noted certain arguments about Perera overstating the 90-day risk. Notably, critics of Perera’s thesis stated that with nearly $56 billion in Bitcoin net asset value against about $16 billion in debt and preferred equity, Strategy has around 3.5x collateral coverage. Given this aspect, along with BTC reserves, operating revenue, and several refinancing options, they argue that MSTR shouldn’t be called a Ponzi scheme.
Is MSTR a Good Stock to Buy?
Currently, Wall Street has a Strong Buy consensus rating on Strategy stock based on 12 Buys and two Holds. The average MSTR stock price target of $524.08 indicates 196% upside potential from current levels.
