Both the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) clinched new intraday record highs on Thursday, one day after the Fed voted to cut rates by 25 bps.
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The indexes opened in the green after initial jobless claims cooled down, falling by 31,000 to 231,000 for the week ended September 13. During the previous week, initial jobless claims reached a nearly four-year high of 263,000, which was revised higher to 264,000. However, the elevated reading was attributed to fraudulent unemployment filings coming out of Texas.
“The increase in initial claims for unemployment insurance in the week ending September 6th is directly related to an increased volume of fraudulent claim attempts,” said a spokesperson for the Texas Workforce Commission.
Continuing jobless claims, while still elevated, fell to 1.920 million from 1.939 million and were below the consensus estimate of 1.950 million.
Meanwhile, The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index (LEI) has flashed a recession signal, falling by 0.5% in August, the largest drop since April when President Trump announced his reciprocal tariffs. In addition, TCB expects gross domestic product (GDP) to grow by 1.6% in 2025, a steep decline compared to 2024’s growth of 2.8%.
“A major driver of this slowdown has been higher tariffs, which already trimmed growth in H1 2025 and will continue to be a drag on GDP growth in the second half of this year and in H1 2026,” said TCB Senior Manager, Business Cycle Indicators Justyna Zabinska-La Monica.
Despite the signal, TCB isn’t calling for a recession, as the LEI has triggered false recession warnings in the past.
On Friday, President Trump will speak with Chinese President Xi Jinping at 9 a.m. Eastern Time in a high-stakes phone call. Earlier this week, the two countries agreed to a framework deal for TikTok following in-person discussions in Madrid, led by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng. That led to Trump signing an executive order to extend the TikTok ban by another 90 days until December 17.
The TikTok deal still requires approval from both leaders and involves a consortium of U.S. investors taking an 80% stake in the company. Tariffs will be another point of discussion that will be closely watched by investors.
The S&P 500 (SPX) closed with a 0.48% gain, while the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) returned 0.95%.
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