Both the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) closed in the green on Tuesday as record tariff revenues and a soft Producer Price Index (PPI) report outweighed concerning retail sales and consumer sentiment data.
TipRanks Black Friday Sale
- Claim 60% off TipRanks Premium for the data-backed insights and research tools you need to invest with confidence.
- Subscribe to TipRanks' Smart Investor Picks and see our data in action through our high-performing model portfolio - now also 60% off
U.S. net customs duties rose to $31.4 billion in October, setting a record for the month, although the budget deficit increased by 10% from a year ago to $284 billion. However, some of November’s military and healthcare benefit payments were shifted into October because November 1 fell on a Saturday. Adjusting for these differences would have resulted in the billion deficit falling by 29% to $180 billion.
September’s PPI rose by 0.3% month-over-month and 2.7% year-over-year, both matching consensus estimates. The Bureau of Labor Statistics originally scheduled the data to be published on October 16, although the government shutdown pushed it back. Core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy items, increased by 0.1% month-over-month and 2.6% year-over-year. Analysts were expecting a monthly rise of 0.3% and a yearly rise of 2.7%.
The report is the last gauge of inflation available to the Fed before the December 9-10 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting. The Fed is likely to cut rates by 25 bps, with 82.7% odds based on CME’s FedWatch tool.
Meanwhile, the Census Bureau announced that September’s retail sales rose by 0.2%, below the consensus estimate of 0.4%. The sales control group, which excludes volatile items like autos and gasoline, fell by 0.1%, also below the estimate of a 0.3% gain. As with the PPI, September’s retail sales data was delayed due to the shutdown.
Consumer sentiment added to the troubling data, with The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) falling by 6.8 points to 88.7.
“Consumer confidence tumbled in November to its second lowest level since April after moving sideways for several months,” said TCB Chief Economist Dana M. Peterson. “All five components of the overall index flagged or remained weak.”
Furthermore, the Expectations Index, a subset of the CCI, fell by 8.6 points to 63.2. The index has now remained below 80 for 10 consecutive months, triggering a recession warning, said TCB.
The S&P 500 (SPX) closed with a 0.91% gain, while the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) returned 0.58%.
Stay ahead of macro events with our up-to-the-minute Economic Calendar — filter by impact, country, and more.