The S&P 500 ETF (SPY) ended Tuesday slightly in the red, while the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) closed higher ahead of the anticipated Fed interest rate decision tomorrow at 2 p.m. Eastern Time.
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Delayed Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data showed that October layoffs increased to 1.85 million from 1.78 million, registering the highest monthly total since January 2023. Additionally, the hiring rate fell to 3.2% from 3.4%.
“Not good news for job seekers: The hiring rate fell back to 3.2% in October. This is one of the lowest hiring rates since the Great Recession era (when unemployment was 7%+),” said Navy Federal Credit Union Chief Economist Heather Long in an X post.
Furthermore, October’s job openings reached a five-month high of 7.67 million, rising from 7.66 million in September and topping the estimate of 7.2 million. Employees are also engaging in “job hugging,” as the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported 2.941 million job quits, below the estimate of 3.15 million and falling from 3.128 million month-over-month.
On Wednesday, the Fed is expected to cut rates by 25 bps, with CME’s FedWatch tool pricing in 87.4% odds of that outcome. Ahead of the decision, President Trump suggested in an interview with Politico that it would be a “litmus test” for his Fed Chair nominee to support immediate rate cuts. Powell’s term as Chair ends in May 2026, although his term as a Fed Governor stretches until January 2028. Trump is expected to select National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett, who voiced his support for a December rate cut but added that the rate outlook would be dependent on incoming economic data.
The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, which is the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, grew by 2.8% annually in September, above the Fed’s target of 2%. The Bureau of Economic Analysis has yet to schedule release dates for October and November’s delayed core PCE, leaving the central bank in the dark on key data.
Finally, ADP reported that U.S. private employers added an average of 4,750 jobs per week for the four weeks ended November 22. The data, released as part of a weekly series, are volatile and subject to revision. ADP previously said the private sector lost 32,000 jobs in November, badly missing the estimate of 10,000 job additions.
The S&P 500 (SPX) closed with a 0.09% loss, while the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) returned 0.16%.
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