As someone who follows broad trends, technicals, and market sentiment, I believe the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (GLD) will perform reasonably well over the coming year. Potential rate cuts and sustained central bank demand for gold all point to a decent picture.
Also, gold does well when there is enough uncertainty to make the market flee from equities and bonds. Today’s situation has been favorable for gold in this regard, but beware of safe-haven sentiment for the asset dissipating if macro clarity returns in 2026. Year-to-date, GLD is up almost 26% in a resounding display of market-beating performance as most stocks skidded over the past month. As a result of the market dynamics, I’m bullish on GLD given its unique position to capitalize on the macro unease.
GLD is Gold Without the Hassle
The SPDR Gold Trust is an effective and easy way to invest in gold without physically taking delivery of the metal. Each share is backed by real gold bars stored in vaults in London, and it seeks to closely follow the spot price of gold, less a minimal fee.
In today’s environment of near-term inflation concerns, central banks accumulating gold, and technical sentiment strengthening, GLD is doing superbly well. I think it makes sense to have some gold exposure in a diversified portfolio right now, but not too much that it will dampen a return to strong equity growth in 2026. All in all, I’m bullish on a 6-12 month outlook.
Macro Conditions Remain Fine for Now
The U.S. economic outlook has recently shifted due to the implementation of President Trump’s new tariff policies. Earlier in the year, Goldman Sachs projected a robust 2.4% GDP growth for 2025. However, introducing extensive tariffs has led to a downward revision of this forecast to 1.7%, with some estimates suggesting growth could be as low as 1.0%. This creates tailwinds for the price of gold as parts of the market are even bracing for a potential recession.
Another huge advantage for gold investors is that central banks are rapidly purchasing the precious metal. For the third consecutive year, they acquired more than 1,000 tonnes in 2024, thereby keeping gold prices steady. Moreover, their affirmative behavior speaks loudly concerning gold’s current relevance to global financial security.
Inflation, Interest Rates, and the Gold Equation
One reason I maintain a cautiously bullish outlook is that, despite upward pressures from recent tariffs, the Federal Reserve appears prepared to adjust interest rates to support economic growth, provided inflation expectations remain anchored. Policymakers are adopting a measured approach to balance the dual objectives of controlling inflation and sustaining employment.
Generally, modest inflation with possible rate cuts will send gold prices climbing. Surprises do happen, however. If the Fed has to keep rates higher longer than anticipated, it could get in gold’s way. But at the moment, I don’t see a high risk of an abrupt acceleration. Even inflation caused by tariffs seems temporary.
Technical Insight Reveals GLD Strength
GLD appears strong, if a little overvalued, from a technical perspective. The fund is well above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. The 50-day average stands at around $280, and the 200-day average stands at around $250, with GLD being ~$30 above its 50-day average. This indicates huge momentum.
Another good sign is that the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) is approximately 65. A number above 70 means the market is overbought, but 65 is a good level to buy a little as a strategic growth-driven hedge against current market uncertainty. If the RSI moves above 70, I’ll be anticipating a slight fall in the near term. For now, it means strong demand, but not excessive buying.
I’m also encouraged by volume. During mid-April, GLD’s trading volume consistently traded well above its 10-day average on rallies. Institutions, not just retail investors, are usually behind high-volume rallies. Combined with modest volatility, this shows a well-ordered, sustainable uptrend.
Price Target for GLD ETF
Due to the powerful fundamentals and charts, I believe GLD will rise to ~$330 within a year. That would equate to a rise of some 10% from current levels. The current spot price of gold is hovering at about $3,300 an ounce. If it goes up by 10%, it would be approaching $3,630. Many major Wall Street banks are now touting a price target for gold of $4,000 per ounce by mid-2026. However, many of those same banks are more bearish than I am on the macroeconomy.
Every share of GLD holds about one-tenth of an ounce of gold. As such, the ETF ought to stay in the low-to-mid $300s. Can gold go up even further? Yes, it can, especially if there are additional political tensions or real yields decline considerably.
However, short of the highly unusual, I believe that a $330 target for GLD is reasonable and realistic. It’s also not improbable that GLD could dip as sentiment returns to equities in 2026 following rate cuts, stabilized and taming inflation, and general macroeconomic clarity. I’m not a buyer at these levels, even though I consider GLD a valid long-term asset to hold. For other investors, the most recent fund flow data indicates GLD received net inflows of $11 billion over the past year.
However, hedge fund managers have a different take.
Are Hedge Funds Buying PLTR?
Despite its headline-grabbing exploits, the smart institutional money doesn’t seem to like GLD. According to TipRanks’ hedge fund tracker, Wall Street hedge fund managers view GLD with low confidence.
According to 13F filings from 488 hedge funds submitted to the U.S. SEC, as GLD has seen higher highs, hedge fund managers have reduced their stakes from over 4 million shares in January 2025 to less than 1 million today. The current Confidence Signal based on 34 leading hedge funds is Neutral.
GLD Is a Strategic Hedge and a Growth Asset
I find GLD an intelligent and easy method of investing in gold as it slowly appreciates throughout turbulent times. The overall picture is favorable, the technicals are bullish, and the central banks are still buying. Gold definitely does best when there’s heavy uncertainty in the market, which is what we have presently.
Should conditions improve, this doesn’t mean gold will materially suffer. Instead, it will likely continue to be viewed as a strategic asset by the market, keeping sentiment strong. If you’re looking to invest in gold but don’t want the hassle of holding actual gold bars, GLD is a fine choice. I’m optimistic and think GLD might do well next year. However, be warned that if the Fed begins to cut rates in 2026 and a bull run resumes for equities amid taming inflation, sentiment for gold could very well dip.