SpaceX just hit a stunning $400 billion valuation, according to new reports. That cements its place as the most valuable private company in America. But the massive valuation figure isn’t the only news.
Elevate Your Investing Strategy:
- Take advantage of TipRanks Premium at 50% off! Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence.
In a newly surfaced investor disclosure, SpaceX confirmed that Elon Musk may be gearing up for a return to U.S. politics. That one detail adds a layer of uncertainty right when investors are placing some of the most ambitious bets on the company’s future.
Now, it’s not just about rockets or Starlink. It’s about what happens if the world’s busiest CEO adds Washington to his to-do list.
No IPO Yet, But a Strong Market Signal
This valuation comes from a secondary share sale, not a public offering. SpaceX is letting employees and early investors sell stock at $212 per share, which implies the $400 billion price tag. These kinds of deals don’t raise new capital for the company. Instead, they give private shareholders a way to take profits and show where the private market is valuing the business.
At that price, SpaceX now sits above other private giants like Stripe, OpenAI, and Shein. It sends a clear message that institutional appetite for the company remains strong, especially among investors betting on the growth of its Starlink satellite division and long-term potential of its Starship launch system.
Starlink Brings Cash Flow, But Starship Brings the Vision
The clearest driver of the current valuation is Starlink. The satellite internet service now has over 6 million users and generated roughly $2.7 billion in 2023 revenue. Starlink provides real revenue and growing cash flow, which investors view as the near-term anchor for SpaceX.
But the real bet behind the $400 billion valuation is Starship, the next-generation rocket system designed for Mars missions and deep space transport. The program has not yet launched commercially and still faces technical challenges. Its most recent prototype exploded during a June test. Investors, however, are willing to price in the idea that once Starship succeeds, SpaceX will dominate global launch infrastructure for decades.
Is $400 Billion Justified?
At face value, the valuation looks aggressive. Analysts estimate that SpaceX may generate $15 billion in revenue next year. That implies a price-to-sales ratio over 25, far higher than traditional aerospace companies. But SpaceX is not being valued like a contractor. It is being priced more like a combination of Amazon Web Services (AMZN) and Lockheed Martin (LMT).
The logic is based on dominance. SpaceX handles over half of all global orbital launches and is the key launch partner for NASA, the Pentagon and major satellite operators. Starlink also gives it a recurring revenue model. Put together, investors see SpaceX as an infrastructure company that could reshape both global communications and space logistics.
Still, the risks remain. Starship is expensive and still unproven. Delays or failures in the program could strain cash flow and slow expansion. In addition, SpaceX has not released public financials, which limits visibility into operating costs, margins and debt.
Political Disclosures Raise New Questions
In a report published by Reuters on Monday, sources confirmed that SpaceX warned investors about a possible return by Elon Musk to U.S. politics. This detail was included as a risk factor in the latest share offering documents.
The exact language was not made public, but the move is telling. Musk has grown more politically active in recent years through his posts on X (formerly Twitter) and public statements. If he becomes more directly involved in politics, either through campaign support or personal ambitions, it could divide his attention even further across his many ventures.
Investors may start to factor this in. Musk already oversees Tesla (TSLA), X, Neuralink, xAI and SpaceX. A political turn could raise reputational risks or affect relationships with key government agencies that contract with SpaceX.
What Is the Prediction for Tesla Stock?
When it comes to Elon Musk’s companies, most of them are privately held. However, retail investors can invest in his most popular company, Tesla (TSLA). Turning to Wall Street, analysts have a Hold consensus rating on TSLA stock based on 13 Buys, 12 Holds, and seven Sells assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. Furthermore, the average TSLA price target of $299.52 per share implies 10% downside risk.
