As the S&P 500 (SPX) slides on AI spending and bubble fears, a technical indicator named after the Hindenburg airship disaster is adding on to investor anxiety. The Hindenburg Omen, an indicator used to predict stock market crashes, was recently triggered on January 29.
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The signal is activated when the percentage of new highs and new lows on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) exceeds 2.8% with a negative McClellan Oscillator reading and the NYSE Index higher than it was 50 days ago.
What is the Hindenburg Omen?
According to Subu Trade, the S&P 500 is positive 52% of the time one week after a Hindenburg Omen with an average return of -0.46%. The one-month return is a loss of 2.03%, while the two-month return is a loss of 0.71%. The last signal, which occurred in November 2025, resulted in a one-week decline of 2.95%, a one-month gain of 1.17%, and a two-month gain of 3.07%.
While the Hindenburg Omen has historically signaled near-term declines, the average one-year return for the benchmark index following its activation has been positive 80% of the time.