Sovereign AI Could Be Nvidia’s Next Trillion-Dollar Tailwind

Nvidia’s (NVDA) new pitch is simple: every country is going to need its own AI. And if that thesis holds, it could hand the chip giant a $1.5 trillion opportunity. That’s not analyst speculation—it’s Nvidia’s roadmap.

The term “Sovereign AI” was front and center during CEO Jensen Huang’s tour of Europe last week, where leaders across the continent embraced the idea of building national-level AI infrastructure—data centers, compute, and full-stack software tailored to state-level needs. Wall Street’s already doing the math.

Oppenheimer Sees Sovereign AI as a $1.5 Trillion Market

Oppenheimer’s Rick Schafer sees sovereign AI as a $1.5 trillion market in the making, with Europe alone representing $120 billion of that pie. If even a fraction of governments get serious about national AI systems, Nvidia could walk away with tens of billions in contracts.

According to Schafer, a single gigawatt-scale AI data center could bring in as much as $50 billion in revenue for Nvidia, thanks to its unique ability to deliver an entire AI stack—from semiconductors to software.

That’s why he reiterated an Outperform rating and slapped a $175 target on the stock.

This Is a New Kind of Arms Race

This isn’t cloud 2.0. It’s AI nationalism, and Nvidia is positioning itself as the arms dealer.

If nations treat AI as a strategic asset, they’ll want domestic control over training, inference, and data security. That means buying infrastructure, not just renting it from AWS. It means long-term contracts, not just product cycles. It’s the AI equivalent of building your own energy grid—and Nvidia wants to be the generator.

In a time of growing geopolitical tension, this framing works. And it gives Nvidia access to budgets that dwarf even Big Tech.

Wall Street’s Only Fear? Nvidia’s Price

Valuation is still a sticking point. After running over 200% in the past year, Nvidia’s bar is high. Any disappointment, on growth, margins, or supply chain execution, can send the stock wobbling. NVDA shares fell 2% Friday before rebounding 0.7% Monday to $142.99.

But the broader setup hasn’t changed. Nvidia still leads in high-end GPUs. It still owns the software layer (CUDA). And now, it’s laying claim to a whole new vertical that could carry its dominance beyond the data center—and into statecraft.

Is Nvidia a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

According to TipRanks, the stock holds a Strong Buy rating from 40 analysts. 35 call it a Buy, just one says Sell. The average 12-month NVDA price target sits at $172.36, about 21% higher than where it trades today.

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