Solana’s (SOL-USD) recent recovery ran into trouble after spot Solana ETFs recorded their first net outflow since launch. The funds saw $8.2 million leave in a single day, breaking a short streak of steady inflows. This outflow sent an early warning that institutional demand may be cooling just as SOL was trying to claw back higher levels.
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ETF flows are important because they directly influence short-term price pressure. When money flows in, supply tightens and prices tend to rise. When money flows out, that dynamic quickly reverses. In Solana’s case, the timing is especially fragile, with price already struggling to hold above the mid-$140s.
The pullback in ETF demand also arrived as broader crypto markets showed hesitation. Bitcoin remains range-bound and altcoins have struggled to attract consistent risk capital. For Solana, the loss of ETF support removes one of the few steady sources of upside fuel.
Solana’s Network Activity Weakens Under the Surface
On-chain data is also flashing warning signs. Active addresses on the Solana network dropped roughly 6% over the past week, while network fees slid by about 16%. These declines suggest fewer users are actively transacting, which weakens the economic engine that supports long-term price growth.
Total value locked across Solana’s DeFi ecosystem has also taken a hit. TVL is down roughly 20% so far this month and has fallen more than 30% from its September peak. Major protocols such as Jito, Jupiter, Raydium, and Sanctum all posted sharp deposit declines over the past 30 days.
Falling TVL and shrinking fee revenue do not guarantee lower prices, but they reduce the margin of safety for any rally. Without stronger user activity and capital deployment, Solana’s price becomes far more sensitive to technical breakdowns.
Upbit Hack Adds Another Layer of Risk
Additionally, new uncertainty hit the Solana market after a $36 million hack struck Upbit’s Solana hot wallet. The South Korean exchange briefly halted SOL deposits and withdrawals for maintenance following the breach. This move restricted liquidity for traders at a critical moment.
When large exchanges suspend transfers, it often causes short-term price distortions. Traders lose the ability to move assets freely, which can amplify both panic selling and forced liquidations. While SOL managed to rise about 3% to around $143 after the news, that bounce quickly lost strength.
The hack did not directly threaten Solana’s core network, but it added friction just as confidence was already fragile. In thin conditions, even isolated events like this can create outsized volatility.
Solana’s Bear Flag Tightens Below $150
Technically, Solana is now trading inside a classic bear flag pattern on the lower time frames. This structure forms when price consolidates slightly higher after a sharp drop, often before another leg lower. The flag began forming after SOL peaked near $170 earlier this month.
Support now sits near the $140 zone. A clean break below that level would activate the downside target of the pattern near $100. This outcome would imply another decline of roughly 30% from current prices.
The $145 to $150 area remains the key ceiling to watch. Price has already been rejected multiple times near this zone. Until SOL can reclaim that level with strong volume and follow-through, the technical path of least resistance remains tilted to the downside.
Key Takeaway
Solana’s recovery is losing strength as ETF money pulls back, network activity fades, and bearish chart signals tighten. Unless demand returns quickly, SOL may remain capped below $150 and face rising risk of a deeper move toward $100.
At the time of writing, Solana is sitting at $142.
