Solana’s (SOL-USD) climb toward $200 recently felt inevitable, but the altcoin has lost nearly 10% in the past week, pulling it off its highs. That might sound like trouble, and it is, but not all hope is lost just yet.
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In fact, three key metrics are quietly pointing to a potential rebound. One of them, a technical formation traders obsess over, could even spark a short-term rally.
Exchange Selling Pressure Drops
The first key metric turning in Solana’s favor is the sharp drop in exchange balances. Between July 23 and August 5, the amount of SOL held on exchanges fell from 33.06 million to 30.78 million. That’s a drop of nearly 7%, signaling reduced sell-side pressure.
When fewer tokens sit on centralized exchanges, it typically means less risk of large holders dumping into the market. Even more encouraging, the Solana price has just moved above the supply trendline on that same chart. This is a move that tends to precede short bursts upward.
Back on July 16, when this kind of crossover occurred, Solana surged from $173 to $205 in less than a week. Another similar move on July 24 saw a smaller pop, from $182 to $188, in just three sessions. The pattern may not always result in fireworks, but historically, it’s been a solid early indicator of short-term bullish momentum.
Institutional Futures Hold Steady While Retail Flinches
The second signal worth watching is open interest in Solana’s CME futures. Despite the recent decline in spot price, institutional futures interest has held firm. That divergence is rarely accidental.
On August 1, CME open interest stayed flat at 3.07 million, even as Solana fell from $162 to $158. The price then bounced back to $169 within days. The implication here is that larger players are not panicking. Instead, they may be waiting patiently for retail traders to exit before reloading positions at more attractive levels.
A similar pattern emerged in late July. From July 25 to 27, futures interest barely budged while the price corrected. Then, once the short-term turbulence passed, Solana rebounded by a few percentage points. Steady institutional hands amid volatility can be a quiet sign of strength, and a warning not to count SOL out just yet.
A Golden Crossover Could Ignite a Short-Term Breakout
Finally, the daily Solana price chart is showing early signs of a golden crossover. This pattern occurs when the 50-day EMA begins to cross above the 200-day EMA, and it’s generally considered a bullish omen for price momentum.
Right now, Solana is holding above key support at $160. If that level holds and SOL pushes above $176, the golden crossover could be confirmed. That, in turn, might act as a trigger for renewed interest and a potential rally toward $188 or even back to $200.
However, a break below $155 would put that scenario at risk. And if the EMAs flip the other way, forming what’s known as a “death crossover,” it could trigger a further leg down toward $142.
At the time of writing, Solana is sitting at $167.33.
