Super Micro Computer (SMCI) will release its second-quarter fiscal 2026 results after market close tomorrow, February 3. Shares have been under pressure, dropping 7.5% over the past five days. Analysts expect sales to rise drastically and earnings to fall compared to the prior-year quarter.
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SMCI is one of the U.S.’ largest providers of high-performance servers, focusing on energy-efficient solutions for data centers, AI, cloud computing, and edge infrastructure. Investors will focus on the company’s order backlog, a key performance metric. In Q1FY26, SMCI reported a backlog of over $13 billion, signaling robust demand. However, supply chain constraints could hinder conversion to sales. Additionally, SMCI’s margins will be under scrutiny, as they have contracted amid intensifying competition.
Expectations from SMCI
The Street expects SMCI to post adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $0.49, lower than Q2FY24’s figure of $0.51. Sales are forecast to surge 83.4% year-over-year to $10.42 billion. Unfortunately, SMCI has missed earnings estimates in five of the past eight quarters.
Investors will compare results against the company’s guidance. SMCI previously projected Q2 revenues of $10 to $11 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.46-$0.54.
The Justice Department continues to scrutinize SMCI’s accounting practices, spotlighted by short-seller Hindenburg Research’s report last year. Any updates on the same could sway the stock.
Options Traders’ View
According to TipRanks’ Options Tool, options traders expect about a 12.30% move in either direction for SMCI stock in reaction to Q2FY26 results. Notably, this implied move is considerably higher than Super Micro Computer stock’s average post-earnings move (in absolute terms) of 7.06% over the past four quarters.
Analysts’ Views Ahead of Results
Analysts remain cautious on Super Micro Computer’s outlook. Heading into the Q2 results, four analysts rated it a Hold, one rated it a Buy, and one rated it a Sell.
Citi analyst Asiya Merchant kept her Hold rating but slashed the price target from $48 to $39, implying 34% upside potential. She cited sustained capex from major cloud operators to fuel demand for power systems, storage, connectors, and fiber optics.
On the other hand, Goldman Sachs analyst Mike Ng initiated coverage with a Sell rating and $26 price target, 10.7% downside potential. He expects SMCI to maintain its leadership in the AI server market over the medium term. However, he flags limited near-term visibility for margin improvements due to large, dilutive contracts, rising competition from OEMs (original equipment manufacturers) and ODMs (Original Design Manufacturers), and escalating input costs.
Meanwhile, Northland Securities analyst Nehal Chokshi reiterated his Buy rating and Street-high price target of $63, implying 116.4% upside potential.
Is SMCI a Good Stock to Buy?
On TipRanks, Super Micro Computer has a Hold consensus rating based on five Buys, six Holds, and two Sell ratings. The average Super Micro Computer price target of $44 implies 51.1% upside potential from current levels. Over the past year, SMCI shares have gained 8.4%, trailing the broader S&P 500’s 15.7% rise.
