E-commerce platform Shopify (SHOP) is scheduled to report its results for the fourth quarter of 2024 before the market opens on Tuesday, February 11. SHOP stock has rallied 38% over the past year, mainly due to the company’s stellar Q3 earnings report and solid guidance for the holiday quarter. Analysts expect Shopify to report Q4 2024 earnings per share (EPS) of $0.43, reflecting a 34.3% increase from the prior-year quarter.
Further, Wall Street’s Q4 2024 revenue estimate of $2.69 billion indicates about 26% year-over-year growth. Shopify is seeing solid momentum, with Q3 2024 marking the fifth consecutive quarter in which gross merchandise value (GMV) growth was more than 20%. The company is boosting its top line by driving growth across different merchant segments, geographies, channels, and products.
Analysts’ Opinions on SHOP Stock Ahead of Q4 Earnings
Heading into Shopify’s Q4 results, Jefferies analyst Samad Samana reiterated a Hold rating on SHOP stock and raised the price target to $110 from $80. Samana expects Shopify to report a robust GMV beat, fueled by strong BFCM (Black Friday Cyber Monday) results, resilient consumer spending, and traction across newer growth initiatives.
Samana expects Q4 revenue to grow about 27% to $2.72 billion, in line with the company’s outlook of mid-to-high twenties year-over-year growth. While the analyst sees the potential for another impressive print, he thinks that shares might remain range-bound given SHOP stock’s high valuation.
Meanwhile, Loop Capital analyst Anthony Chukumba reaffirmed a Buy rating on Shopify stock with a price target of $140. Chukumba said that his firm’s quarterly survey revealed that merchant feedback indicates that Q4 results will be essentially in line with estimates. Further, the survey reflected that Shopify’s AI merchant tools, like Magic and Sidekick, have already gained significant traction. He added that SHOP’s solid Black Friday through Cyber Monday performance and a better-than-expected holiday selling season bode well for Q4 results.
Options Traders Anticipate a Major Move on SHOP’s Q4 Earnings
Using TipRanks’ Options tool, we can see what options traders are expecting from the stock immediately after its earnings report. The expected earnings move is determined by calculating the at-the-money straddle of the options closest to expiration after the earnings announcement. If this sounds complicated, don’t worry, the Options tool does this for you.
Indeed, it currently says that options traders are expecting a 13.7% move in either direction in reaction to Shopify’s Q4 2024 results.
Is SHOP Stock a Good Buy?
Wall Street is cautiously optimistic about Shopify stock, with a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 20 Buys, 13 Holds, and two Sells. The average SHOP stock price target of $119.34 implies just 1.6% upside potential from current levels.
