Salesforce stock (CRM) is stuck in reverse at a time when investors want clear AI winners. CRM shares are down about 30% year to date and roughly 5% over the past five years, leaving the company trailing the S&P 500 by more than 90 percentage points over that stretch. This kind of underperformance has changed how the market values the stock.
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Salesforce now trades for roughly five times the sales expected over the next 12 months. A year ago, the multiple sat closer to eight times, in line with other large software names. The slide reflects more than just market rotation. Growth has cooled and investors are unsure whether Marc Benioff can make Salesforce an AI winner rather than an AI casualty.
Radke Cuts Target and Stays on the Sidelines
Citi analyst Tyler Radke does not expect the next earnings report to flip the narrative. Heading into the Dec. 3 release, he keeps a Hold rating on the stock and has cut his price target to $253 from $276. His view is that near-term numbers may be fine, but they will not settle the big AI question.
Slower growth adds to his caution. Salesforce grew revenue about 17% a year on average in recent years, yet forecasts now point to sub-10% growth over the next few years. In Radke’s view, that puts more pressure on AI products to carry the next leg of the story. For now, he is not convinced that demand has reached escape velocity.
AI Products Grow, but Investor Patience Wears Thin
Inside Salesforce, the AI machine is not standing still. Agentforce, the company’s AI platform, aims to help workers do more with automated assistance, while Data Cloud pulls customer data into one place to power those tools. In the second quarter, Salesforce said Data Cloud and AI annual recurring revenue topped $1.2 billion, growing 120% year over year.
Even so, Radke hears mixed signals from the field. “Though there is ample pipeline interest in Agentforce/Data Cloud, Agentforce production remains limited, with most anecdotes pushed by go-to-market teams more than pulled by customers,” he wrote. After speaking with three Salesforce partners and attending Dreamforce, he added that “we walk away with continued cautious feedback” and wants to see broader rollouts and clear proof of commercialization before turning more positive.
Earnings May Land Fine While the Big Debate Continues
For the Fiscal third quarter, Radke models earnings of $2.85 a share, in line with Wall Street’s $2.86 consensus and up from $2.41 a year earlier. He expects revenue to track close to the roughly $41.2 billion that analysts forecast for Fiscal 2026. These numbers suggest the core business is still solid.
The problem is that solid might not be enough. Investors are trying to decide whether AI will lift Salesforce’s growth and margins or slowly erode its moat as new tools emerge around it. Until Agentforce and Data Cloud show they can move the needle in a visible way, Salesforce stock may remain a “prove it” story, even after the next earnings call.
Is CRM a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Turning to Wall Street, CRM stock has a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on 30 Buys, nine Holds, and one Sell assigned in the last three months. At $324.49, the average Salesforce stock price target implies a 41.9% upside potential.
