Rivian’s latest sales update has thrown cold water on what was already a shaky EV comeback narrative. Rivian stock (RIVN) took a 4.5% hit after the company reported a 23% drop in Q2 sales. But here’s what really rattled investors: the company reaffirmed its full-year delivery target. That might sound stable on paper, but under the hood, it means Rivian has to pull off a 23% delivery surge in the second half of the year. And right now, that looks like a heavy lift.
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RIVN’s Guidance Isn’t Enough When Growth Is Missing
The drop in Q2 sales spooked investors because Rivian isn’t showing the growth spark that competitors like GM (GM) are finally delivering. Ford’s (F) EV unit is still struggling too, but its hybrid sales are booming. Tesla’s (TSLA) numbers are down, but it has scale and margin to fall back on. Rivian has neither. Rivian delivered 10,661 vehicles last quarter, bringing its H1 total to just over 19,000. To hit the midpoint of its 2025 guidance, it needs to deliver around 24,000 in H2, a big jump from where it is now.
Investors don’t like when targets rely on back-half heroics. It signals execution risk and a very narrow margin for error.
Rivian’s stock is reacting accordingly, down to $13.47 even as broader markets rallied. Simply holding the line isn’t good enough in an EV market that’s punishing stagnation.
EV Headwinds Are Building Across the Board
It’s not just a Rivian issue. Tesla’s first-half deliveries dropped 13%. Ford’s EV sales were down 31% in Q2. Even as legacy players like GM saw triple-digit growth in electric sales, much of that came from newly launched models — a luxury Rivian hasn’t yet fully deployed.
And while Ford and GM are picking up momentum from hybrid sales and new lineups, Rivian remains all-in on the high-end EV niche, which has seen demand softness amid rate concerns, inflation fatigue, and rising tariffs.
Model-Year Refresh Is Coming — and It Better Deliver
Rivian said production was temporarily slowed to prep for the 2026 model refresh, set to launch later this month. If that rollout lands well, it could reignite demand and help meet guidance. But if the refresh underwhelms or faces production hiccups, investors will be quick to punish the stock.
Wall Street wants proof of scale, not just plans. And as competitors push further into the mainstream and international markets, Rivian’s runway to prove it can grow sustainably is getting shorter.
Is Rivian Stock a Good Buy?
According to TipRanks, Rivian currently holds a “Hold” rating based on 23 analyst opinions. Out of these, seven analysts rate the stock a Buy, 13 say Hold, and three recommend to Sell.
The average 12-month RIVN price target is $14.64, representing an 8.69% upside from the current price of $13.47.
