The overall picture in Canada is not looking good right now. Two separate reports look for problems ahead, with the retail sector suffering and job vacancies remaining unfilled. This is general bad news, but that was not reflected in the iShares S&P / TSX 60 Index fund (TSE:XIU) figures. In fact, that ETF actually managed to gain fractionally in Wednesday morning’s trading.
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We remember, not so long ago, when the entire country of Canada added just 8,800 jobs to its rolls in the space of a month. This is in keeping with projections from Alberta Central chief economist Charles St-Arnaud, who notes “The general message of the report is that we have a slowing labor market. We are seeing signs of increased slack in the economy and businesses that are not willing to hire.”
A report from Statistics Canada underscores the matter, noting that job vacancies were down 3.8% in the first quarter, when measured against the fourth quarter of 2024. Bad enough—if perhaps a bit skewed; after all, that fourth quarter is holiday central—but it only gets worse. The first quarter of 2025 came in 18.1% worse for job vacancies than the first quarter of 2024 did.
Retail is Taking a Beating
Most of us likely know about the closings at Hudson’s Bay Company, not to mention Saks Fifth Avenue Canada. But the steady decline in employment opportunities is hitting the retail sector hard, as well as being directly responsible for some of it. April saw 56 business insolvencies in Canada, reports noted, as well as 46 bankruptcies. BCO Canada partner Michael Basso noted starkly: “…retailers are in trouble and there’s more to come.”
The whole matter was compounded by the fact that there have not really been good times in Canadian retail for a while now. Many businesses were slow to recover after pandemic restrictions, and without much room to provide cushion, a full economic downturn—fueled by a trade war—only made bad times worse without intervening good times to provide some slack.
Is the iShares S&P / TSX 60 Index ETF a Good Buy Right Now?
Turning to Wall Street, analysts have a Moderate Buy consensus rating on TSE:XIU shares based on 51 Buys, nine Holds and one Sell assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. After a 22.95% rally in its share price over the past year, the average TSE:XIU price target of $43.91 per share implies 9.84% upside potential.
