Zentalis Pharmaceuticals: Balancing DENALI Momentum and ASPENOVA Visibility Against Pivotal Data and Execution Risk (Hold Rating Maintained)

Michael Ulz, an analyst from Morgan Stanley, maintained the Hold rating on Zentalis Pharmaceuticals. The associated price target remains the same with $4.00.

Michael Ulz has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors tied to both Zentalis’s clinical momentum and remaining execution risk. He notes that enrollment has been completed in Part 2a of the Phase 2 DENALI study, which is designed to pinpoint the optimal dosing regimen for azenosertib, with dose confirmation expected in the first half of 2026. The company aims to deliver registration-directed topline results from both parts of DENALI by the end of 2026 and believes these data could potentially support an accelerated approval pathway, subject to regulatory review. Ulz also highlights that Zentalis has reached agreement with the FDA on the design of the Phase 3 ASPENOVA confirmatory trial in Cyclin E1–positive platinum-resistant ovarian cancer, positioning the program for a clear regulatory trajectory.

At the same time, Ulz factors in the inherent uncertainty and binary nature of the upcoming pivotal data, which tempers the risk‑reward profile at this stage. While the company’s cash runway into late 2027 reduces near‑term financing pressure and comfortably covers the DENALI readout timeline, the valuation already reflects a meaningful portion of anticipated clinical progress. In his view, the shares warrant a neutral stance until more definitive efficacy and safety results from DENALI are available and the ASPENOVA trial is underway. As a result, he maintains a Hold rating, reflecting optimism about the clinical program balanced against the remaining data, regulatory, and execution risks.

Ulz covers the Healthcare sector, focusing on stocks such as Arrowhead Pharmaceuticals, Kyverna Therapeutics, Inc., and Alnylam Pharma. According to TipRanks, Ulz has an average return of 3.2% and a 46.89% success rate on recommended stocks.

In another report released today, TipRanks – OpenAI also reiterated a Hold rating on the stock with a $2.00 price target.