Vipshop: Steady Fundamentals, Modest Growth Outlook Support Maintain-Hold Rating and $18 Target

Morgan Stanley analyst Eddy Wang has maintained their neutral stance on VIPS stock, giving a Hold rating yesterday.

Eddy Wang has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors related to Vipshop’s near-term fundamentals and valuation. He expects fourth-quarter 2025 revenue and user metrics to be roughly unchanged from a year earlier, reflecting softer December sales tied to unseasonably warm weather and the shift of some Chinese New Year–related demand into the following quarter. While core user engagement remains stable and premium (SVIP) customers continue to expand, overall growth momentum appears modest. Profitability is also projected to be broadly steady, with only marginal movement in gross and net margins.

At the same time, Wang highlights the company’s ongoing commitment to shareholder returns, including dividends and buybacks linked to a high payout of non-GAAP net profit, which provides some support to the stock. For 2026, he models only low single-digit revenue growth and moderate earnings expansion, suggesting limited earnings acceleration over the medium term. His unchanged price target of $18 values the shares at about seven times projected 2026 non-GAAP earnings, which he regards as an appropriate multiple given the roughly 4% expected earnings CAGR from 2026 to 2029. Taken together, these factors justify maintaining a neutral, or Hold, stance rather than a more aggressive rating in either direction.

In another report released yesterday, Citi also maintained a Hold rating on the stock with a $21.00 price target.