Valneva’s Vaccine Approval and Strategic Partnerships Drive Buy Rating with Promising Financial Projections

Edward White, an analyst from H.C. Wainwright, reiterated the Buy rating on Valneva (VALN – Research Report). The associated price target remains the same with $17.00.

Edward White has given his Buy rating due to a combination of factors including the recent marketing authorization of Valneva’s vaccine, Ixchiq, in Brazil. This approval is significant as it marks the first approval in an endemic country, enhancing the vaccine’s market potential. Additionally, the support from the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) and other partnerships, such as with the Serum Institute of India, provide further opportunities for market expansion and access in low-and-middle-income countries.
Furthermore, the financial projections for Ixchiq are promising, with expected sales growth from €13M in 2025 to €225M in 2029. The valuation of the stock is based on revenue forecasts and probability-adjusted royalty estimates for another vaccine, VLA15, for Lyme disease. The use of a 3.0x price/sales multiple for Ixchiq aligns with industry peers, and a 20% discount rate is applied to account for development risks. These factors collectively support the Buy rating with a price target of $17.00.