Shaun Kelley, an analyst from Bank of America Securities, maintained the Hold rating on Vail Resorts. The associated price target remains the same with $165.00.
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Shaun Kelley has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors tied to Vail Resorts’ early-season operating performance and forward earnings risk. He notes that snowfall has been materially below last year and long-term norms across several key regions, especially the Rockies, resulting in significantly less terrain being open and a 10% year-over-year decline in visitation at U.S. resorts through early January. These weaker traffic trends, combined with the company’s high fixed-cost structure, lead him to believe that resort EBITDA could fall short of the low end of Vail’s fiscal 2026 guidance range, prompting him to revise his own EBITDA outlook downward. He also highlights that historically rare delays in opening Vail Mountain’s Back Bowls, which previously coincided with guidance cuts, further underscore the downside risk to current expectations.
At the same time, Kelley sees reasons not to move to an outright negative stance and therefore maintains a Neutral (Hold) view. Season pass sales provide a partial cushion against in-season visitation volatility, and certain regions like Tahoe and the Northeast have shown improving or resilient conditions, limiting the downside in aggregate. Additionally, his price objective of $165 still implies upside from the current share price, suggesting the stock is not clearly overvalued despite near-term headwinds. Balancing these operational risks with the longer-term fundamentals and valuation, he concludes that the risk/reward profile is fairly balanced at present, justifying a Hold rating rather than a Buy or Sell.
According to TipRanks, Kelley is a 3-star analyst with an average return of 3.2% and a 53.10% success rate. Kelley covers the Consumer Cyclical sector, focusing on stocks such as Vail Resorts, Boyd Gaming, and Churchill Downs.
In another report released on December 23, Morgan Stanley also maintained a Hold rating on the stock with a $151.00 price target.