Vail Resorts: Hold Rating Amid Declining Pass Sales and Below-Expectations Guidance

Morgan Stanley analyst Stephen Grambling has maintained their neutral stance on MTN stock, giving a Hold rating yesterday.

Stephen Grambling has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors impacting Vail Resorts. The company’s recent financial performance, particularly the fourth-quarter adjusted EBITDA of -$125 million, was in line with expectations but still showed a decline compared to the previous year. This performance reflects ongoing challenges, including a decrease in pass sales, which have been declining for two consecutive years.
Additionally, Vail Resorts introduced a 2026 sales and EBITDA guidance that was below Morgan Stanley and consensus expectations. The company’s management plans to address these issues by revamping their marketing strategy and adjusting pricing structures. However, these changes are expected to take time to implement and may initially pressure the company’s fundamentals. As a result, Grambling maintains a cautious outlook, justifying the Hold rating on the stock.

In another report released yesterday, Bank of America Securities also reiterated a Hold rating on the stock with a $165.00 price target.