BTIG analyst Vincent Caintic has maintained their neutral stance on UPST stock, giving a Hold rating on October 30.
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Vincent Caintic has given his Hold rating due to a combination of factors affecting Upstart Holdings. The company’s guidance for the fourth quarter of 2025 shows a decline in key financial metrics compared to consensus expectations, including a notable decrease in total fee revenues, contribution margins, adjusted net income, and adjusted EBITDA. These downward revisions have raised concerns about the company’s near-term financial performance.
Additionally, transaction volumes and fee revenues are critical for Upstart’s stock performance, and the elevated Upstart Macro Index (UMI) levels have negatively impacted these metrics. The UMI, which reflects macroeconomic conditions affecting credit losses, has led to increased loan interest rates, reducing conversion rates and transaction volumes. Although Upstart’s third-quarter results exceeded expectations in terms of adjusted net income and EBITDA, the lower guidance for the fourth quarter and the company’s current valuation suggest a balanced risk-reward scenario, justifying the Hold rating.
In another report released on October 30, Morgan Stanley also maintained a Hold rating on the stock with a $70.00 price target.